When you’re placing dozens to hundreds of bets daily, choosing between flat betting and variable betting (like the Kelly Criterion) significantly impacts your long-term success. At OddsShopper, our Portfolio EV tool defaults to flat betting, and we’re here to explain exactly why this simpler, more straightforward approach is smarter for both casual and experienced bettors using volume betting strategies.
Flat Betting vs Kelly Criterion: Best Strategy for +EV Bets
Expand your bankroll and boost long-term profitability with Portfolio EV. Discover more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page today!
What Is Portfolio Betting?
Portfolio betting is a high-volume approach to sports betting involving making many small, positive expected value (+EV) wagers across multiple markets each day. Rather than relying heavily on a handful of significant bets, as most bettors do, you’re spreading your risk across many smaller bets. This diversified approach stabilizes your results, minimizing financial and emotional rollercoasters and maximizing your betting journey’s sustainability and long-term profitability.
What Is Flat Betting?
Flat betting means placing the same amount on every bet, regardless of perceived confidence or edge. Typically, bettors choose a fixed percentage of their bankroll (e.g., 1%) or a fixed dollar amount for every wager. Unlike the Kelly Criterion or other variable betting systems, flat betting doesn’t adjust your stake based on the perceived size of your advantage. Every bet is equal, reducing complexity and risk.
In contrast, the Kelly Criterion varies your stake based on your calculated edge for each bet — larger edges get larger bets, smaller edges smaller bets. While theoretically optimal for bankroll growth, Kelly betting introduces complexity, variance and practical limitations in real-world betting.
Why Flat Betting is Superior in Volume Betting
Efficiency and Speed
Flat betting allows you to place bets rapidly. Using the Portfolio EV tool, you can quickly place dozens of bets in just minutes. This efficiency is crucial for catching edges before sportsbooks adjust their lines. In contrast, variable bet sizing demands slower manual inputs, causing you to miss profitable opportunities.
More Bets, Less Variance, and Greater Stability
The speed and efficiency of flat betting enable you to comfortably place significantly more bets each day. With more bets, your results become more predictable due to the law of large numbers — dramatically reducing your daily swings. This lower variance leads to less financial and emotional volatility, creating a more sustainable and profitable long-term betting experience.
Moreover, significantly reduced risk of large short-term swings allows you to confidently and responsibly deploy larger portions of your bankroll daily. For instance, betting your entire bankroll on just five bets per day is extremely risky — one bad day could severely harm your bankroll. Conversely, placing 100 or more bets per day makes losing your entire bankroll nearly impossible. This approach allows you to safely maximize bankroll deployment each day, resulting in exponential long-term bankroll growth as you continuously reinvest your profits.
Reduced Risk of Costly Errors
Kelly betting depends heavily on accurate edge estimation. Even the best betting algorithms occasionally produce false positives, bets incorrectly flagged as having significant value. While these false positives may be rare, a single large error can erase substantial profits, undermining the overall profitability of your betting strategy. Flat betting safeguards against these rare but impactful errors by consistently risking only a small, fixed portion of your bankroll, ensuring that no single miscalculation or algorithm glitch can severely harm your overall betting outcomes.
Avoiding Early Sportsbook Limiting
Sportsbooks actively monitor and limit bettors who consistently vary stakes, as this behavior is typically associated with sharp players. Flat betting maintains a uniform betting pattern, making your activity appear more recreational and less likely to trigger immediate restrictions.
Practicality After Limits are Imposed
Eventually, all successful bettors face sportsbook limits. At this stage, most bets you place will approach these imposed maximum limits, making nuanced variable sizing irrelevant. Therefore, optimizing your betting process around the Kelly Criterion has diminishing returns after a few weeks or months.
This all comes with an important caveat, however: Flat betting is most effective when targeting bets within a common odds range (for example, -150 to +150). If you’re frequently betting large underdogs or high-variance markets (like home run props), flat betting may not be optimal.
Misconceptions About the Kelly Criterion
Some bettors incorrectly believe that Kelly betting is inherently smarter or more profitable. While theoretically optimal under perfect conditions (infinite bankroll, accurate odds, unlimited time), real-world constraints diminish its practicality. Fractional Kelly — betting a smaller percentage than full Kelly — already acknowledges this reality. Flat betting is essentially an extreme form of fractional Kelly: It prioritizes simplicity, risk control and sustainability over theoretical perfection. In volume betting, practical success outweighs theoretical optimization. Don’t let the pursuit of perfect sizing get in the way of consistently profitable betting.
Don’t Let Perfect Be the Enemy of Profit
At OddsShopper, we believe in practical, profitable and sustainable betting strategies. Our Portfolio EV tool defaults to flat betting precisely because it’s simple, effective and realistic. Betting 100-plus small, equal units each day harnesses the full power of diversification, mitigates risk and sets you up for long-term betting success without unnecessary complexity.
Trust flat betting. Trust the process. Build your bankroll sustainably — and let the edges you identify through OddsShopper do the heavy lifting.
