Parlay betting is one of the most enticing options in sports betting, offering the allure of the biggest wins from small wagers. But with great rewards come great risks. Understanding how parlay bets work, their potential and strategies to minimize risks is essential for anyone looking to make parlays part of their betting arsenal. This guide explores how to parlay bet, including the risks, rewards and best practices.
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How Parlay Bets Work: Risks and Rewards of Parlay Betting
A parlay bet combines multiple individual bets (called “legs”) into one wager. To win, all legs of the parlay must hit. While this increases the potential payout, it also magnifies the risk since even one incorrect leg results in a loss.
Imagine you bet $10 on a three-leg moneyline parlay:
- Team A (-110)
- Team B (+150)
- Team C (-120)
If all three legs win, your $10 wager could return $74. But if just one leg loses, you walk away with nothing.
Rewards of Parlay Betting
The main appeal of parlays is the opportunity for large payouts relative to your initial stake. This is because the odds of each leg are multiplied together, creating exponential returns.
Why Parlays Are Popular:
- Small Stakes, Big Wins: Bettors can risk a small amount for a chance at a life-changing payout.
- Entertainment Value: Parlays add excitement to watching multiple games simultaneously.
- Bragging Rights: Winning a longshot parlay is a badge of honor in the betting community.
In 2021, a bettor turned a $25 wager into over $100,000 by hitting a 10-leg NFL parlay. Stories like this fuel the appeal of parlays, though they are exceedingly rare.
Risks of Parlay Betting
While parlays offer high rewards, they come with significant risks:
- Low Probability of Success: Adding more legs exponentially increases the difficulty of winning.
- High Hold by Sportsbooks: Sportsbooks often profit more from parlays due to their inherent inefficiencies in odds calculation.
- Illusion of Value: The large payouts can distract bettors from the true probability of winning.
The truth is that parlays are typically a poor value for bettors. The compounded odds often include hidden fees or inefficiencies, which increase the sportsbook’s edge.
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Parlay Betting Strategy
To maximize your chances and minimize risks, consider these strategies:
Focus on +EV Bets
Every leg of your parlay should have positive expected value (+EV). Portfolio EV can help identify bets where the odds are inefficient, giving you an edge.
On top of that, OddsShopper has a Parlay Builder that can help you construct +EV parlays across a multitude of sportsbooks and markets, ensuring that your high-risk bets still have as much value as possible.
Limit the Number of Legs
The more legs you include, the lower your probability of success. Stick to two or three legs for a balance of risk and reward.
Correlate Your Bets
Choose legs that have a logical connection. For example, if you’re betting on a football game, a parlay with the favorite and the under on that team’s total might not correlate well. Instead, pair the favorite with its over for a stronger correlation.
Use Promotions
Many sportsbooks offer parlay insurance or boosted odds for parlays. Take advantage of these sportsbook promotions to reduce risk and increase potential payouts.
Calculating the True Value of a Parlay
To understand whether a parlay is worth placing, use the Parlay Builder to calculate the implied probability of each leg and determine if the compounded odds reflect value.
- Leg 1: -110 (implied probability = 52.38%)
- Leg 2: +150 (implied probability = 40.00%)
- Leg 3: -120 (implied probability = 54.55%)
Combined Probability = 0.5238 × 0.4000 × 0.5455 = 0.114 (11.4%)
If the sportsbook offers a payout that reflects a lower implied probability (e.g., 10%), the parlay has value.
Parlays vs. Single Bets
While parlays can be fun and potentially lucrative, single bets are generally a more reliable way to grow your bankroll. Single bets allow you to focus on +EV bets without the compounding risks of parlays.
Final Thoughts on Parlay Betting
Parlay betting offers thrills and the potential for massive payouts, but it’s not without significant risks. By understanding how parlay bets work and applying sound strategies, you can minimize those risks and increase your chances of success. Remember, the key is to treat parlays as a form of entertainment rather than a primary betting strategy.
Use Portfolio EV to identify +EV opportunities and make informed decisions. With discipline and a long-term mindset, you can enjoy the excitement of parlays without jeopardizing your bankroll.
