Totals bets, also known as over/under bets, are some of the most popular forms of NFL bets. Totals bets allow you bet on the combined score of both teams in a game. The sportsbook sets a line, and you decide whether the total points scored will be over or under that number. This article will help guide you through both market-based and projections-based NFL totals betting strategies to help you identify +EV NFL bets. We also have an NFL player prop betting strategy guide, if you’re interested!
How to Bet NFL Totals: Strategies for Over/Under Betting
What are NFL Total Bets?
When betting on NFL totals, you’re wagering on the total points scored in the game. If you take the over, you’re betting that the combined points of both teams will exceed the sportsbook’s line. Conversely, if you bet on the under, you’re wagering that the total points scored will be less than the sportsbook’s line.
How to Profit on NFL Totals: Find Positive EV
No matter what sport you’re handicapping, if you want to turn a profit in the long run, it’s crucial to acquire positive expected value (+EV). Expected value is an estimate of how profitable you expect a bet to be over the long term, so you need to consistently be betting on plays from which you expect a positive return.
To calculate expected value, you first have to establish the probability of the bet winning. For example, if you estimate an NFL game has a 60% chance of going over a total of 44, the implied odds should be -150. That’s called a projection.
But, as you search the betting market, you see that a sportsbook is dealing the total at 44 with -120 odds. Using OddsShopper’s EV calculator, if you place a $100 bet, you’ll see that have an expected ROI of 10%, indicating that you’ve found a favorable +EV betting opportunity based on your projections versus the bookmaker’s odds.
If your projections consistently produce +EV, then you should be making money over time.
Using OddsShopper’s Model to Find Market-Based NFL Totals Bets
But what if you don’t have your own set of projections to use? No worries, that’s where OddsShopper’s +EV betting tools can assist and do all of the heavy lifting for you.
The ultimate goal as a +EV bettor is to find market inefficiencies. To do so, it’s imperative to recognize which sportsbooks are classified as being “sharper.”
This is crucial because the sharper sportsbooks typically accept higher limit bets while maintaining a low hold. By consistently allowing profitable handicappers to bet at their book, more often than not, they will have the most efficient number in the market.
So, if you’re looking to bet an NFL total and the sharper sportsbook has the total listed at 44, but other bookmakers are dishing out 43, you’ve found an edge. The other books have yet to adjust their number despite the more efficient market telling us that it should be a point higher.
OddsShopper’s +EV betting tools list out all of those discrepancies and signal where the inefficiencies in the marketplace are.
How to Use a Projections-Based Betting Strategy for NFL Totals
Know the Key Numbers for NFL Totals Betting | NFL Totals Betting Strategy
Much like betting the spread, there are key numbers when it comes to NFL totals. Knowing which outcomes are historically the most or least likely lets you evaluate the accuracy of your projections before getting your action down. From 2013 to 2023, here are some of the most frequent totals NFL games have landed on:
- 51 (3.9%)
- 44 (3.7%)
- 40 (3.7%)
- 37 (3.6%)
- 41 (3.5%)
- 43 (3.2%)
- 47 (3.1%)
It’s good to be aware of these so you can make educated bets. For instance, if an NFL game’s total is set at 51.5 and you’re leaning towards betting the over, consider that 51 has been the most common total over the past 10 years. You’d be better off taking the wager at 51 or below. This highlights the importance of monitoring line movement and shopping around for the best number across the market.
Factors to Consider When Projecting NFL Totals | NFL Totals Betting Strategy
Offensive and defensive efficiency are important to utilize if you’re taking a projections-based approach to betting on NFL totals. Note how efficient teams are at scoring points. Consider factors like yards per play, red-zone efficiency and third-down conversion rates, etc. Defensively, make sure to analyze stats such as points allowed, yards given up and red-zone defense, etc. Strong defenses might lead to lower scores, favoring the under.
Relatedly, if you can anticipate the game script, you have a better shot of making an accurate projection. For example, if you predict a team will dominate, you might expect lower scoring since the leading team will likely control the clock and try to run down time. Conversely, close games often see more scoring, especially toward the end as teams become more desperate. Close games also have a higher chance of going into overtime, which creates additional scoring opportunities.
Pace also matters. Teams with a fast tempo (more plays per game) tend to push games toward the over. Conversely, teams that control the clock with a strong running game might lean toward the under.
Weather conditions play a significant role in NFL games. Rain and snow certainly impact where the total will be set at and how the game may play out. However, it’s the wind that has the largest influence on these factors. Games that feature heavy winds, rain or snow will trend toward a lower-scoring affair, while clear conditions and warmer weather lead toward more points.
Venue and playing surface impact the lines as well. Indoor stadiums, or those with turf surfaces, often lead to higher-scoring games due to consistent conditions with no outside influence. Also, home and road splits are necessary to understand. Some teams perform significantly better or worse on the road, which can impact totals.
Monitoring injuries is daily task that’s needed for assessing NFL game totals, particularly for key offensive players like quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs. On the defensive side, missing a star player in the secondary or on the defensive lineman can make a huge difference as well.
Also, don’t underestimate the power of officiating. Certain referees tend to call more penalties, which can provide easier drives that waste little time, thus benefiting the Over. Conversely, if the officiating crew allows for more physicality, it can prevent explosive plays and lead to lower scoring. Always be aware of which officials are assigned to a game.
Recognizing lookahead situations is another component to handicapping NFL totals. Toward the end of the season, teams may play conservatively and sit starters if they have an important matchup the following week, which could favor the Under.
Using Line Movement to Your Advantage | NFL Totals Betting Strategy
Pay attention to how the line moves during the week. Significant movement can indicate sharp money or key news. Also, the public often bets the over, sometimes leading to inflated totals, creating value on the under.
More often than not, totals will have a half point, or a “hook” so they can avoid a tie or “push.” Example: 48.5
Note: Not all totals will have the hook, sometimes you’ll see a flat number such as 48.
It’s crucial to shop around for the best line when betting, which you can do with our NFL betting model. For example, if you want to bet on a total over 48.5 but find a line at 48, it’s better to take the 48. This way, if the final score lands on 48, you’ll get your money back because of the push. Always compare lines across sportsbooks to ensure you get the most favorable number.
