March Madness is one of the most exciting betting opportunities of the year, offering massive action across multiple markets. But if you want to be a profitable bettor during the NCAA Tournament, you need more than just gut feelings and Cinderella stories. This March Madness betting guide will help you approach the tournament strategically and find +EV bets.
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How to Bet on March Madness: Tips and Betting Guide
March Madness is unique in that it attracts casual bettors who might not wager regularly throughout the year. Sportsbooks set lines with public perception in mind, not just pure probability. This means lines can be inefficient — especially early in the tournament — offering sharp bettors opportunities to capitalize on mispriced markets.
March Madness Betting Tips for a +EV Strategy
Shop for the Best Lines
Not all sportsbooks offer the same odds, and that’s where you can find an edge. Market-maker books typically set the most efficient lines, while other books might lag behind in adjusting. Use Portfolio EV to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks and bet where the value is highest.
Fade Public Overreactions
Recreational bettors love favorites and Cinderella stories. This leads to inflated lines on popular teams and value on overlooked squads. Instead of betting on the public darlings, look for instances where the market has overcorrected, giving you a better price on the contrarian side.
Understand Line Movements and Market Timing
Early lines often hold the most value because sharp action hasn’t yet fully influenced them. If you spot a soft number early, bet it before the market sharpens. Conversely, if a big move happens on game day, don’t blindly follow steam — analyze whether it’s a true sharp move or public-driven action.
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Utilize Advanced Metrics Over Traditional Stats
Traditional stats like win-loss records and points per game are baked into the odds. Instead, focus on efficiency metrics such as KenPom ratings, adjusted tempo and defensive efficiency. These metrics provide a deeper understanding of team performance beyond surface-level results.
Leverage Futures Markets Wisely
March Madness futures can be enticing, but sportsbooks typically hold a large edge in these markets. If you’re betting futures, look for positive expected value opportunities by comparing implied probability with actual win probability. Hedge smartly when needed to lock in profits.
Don’t Overvalue Seeding
Higher seeds are often overbet simply because of their ranking. But every year, lower-seeded teams make deep runs. Instead of blindly betting on No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to cover, analyze matchups independently and look for undervalued teams that excel in key areas like 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding and turnover margin.
Bankroll Management is Key
March Madness is a marathon, not a sprint. Betting too aggressively early on can wipe out your bankroll before the Sweet 16. Use bankroll management like Kelly Criterion or a flat-betting approach to sustain your action throughout the tournament without risking unnecessary losses.
Final Thoughts on Betting March Madness
Profiting from March Madness betting isn’t just about picking winners — it’s about understanding market inefficiencies and betting with an edge. By using Portfolio EV, you can make smarter bets and maximize your long-term profitability.
If you’re serious about making money during the NCAA Tournament, take a disciplined approach, shop for the best lines and stay focused on +EV opportunities.
