Anytime touchdown scorer bets are some of the most popular NFL bets you can place. Regardless of whether you get your action down straight or a parlay, there are plenty of anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy tips that you should know. So, if you’re just starting out and are wondering how to bet on NFL anytime touchdown scorers — or if you’ve been doing it for a while and want to start actually making money, we’ll dive into my expert strategy for betting on them below.
How to Bet on NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers: Expert Strategy Tips
How to Bet on NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers
If you want to start betting on NFL anytime touchdown scorers, make sure you’re signed up a sportsbook (if you’re new to the game, check out our BetMGM bonus code) and navigate to the “NFL” or “football” section of your sportsbook.
Once you’re there, you’ll either see a tab for “anytime touchdown” bets or you’ll have to click on individual games to find the player you want to target. Books that have search functions can also make finding these markets easier.
Those are the basics of locking in your NFL anytime touchdown scorer bets. That leads to the next question: How do you bet on NFL anytime touchdown scorers profitably?
Quality, consistent results over time a large sample are required for you to form a good NFL anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy, and the best way to attain those results is by coming up with a consistent method to calculate expected value (EV).
Expected value is simply how much of a return you expect to make on a given bet, which you can estimate by calculating the difference in probability between the price posted at the books and either a market-based estimate or a player projections-based one. If you think a bet wins more often than the books do, you think that bet has positive expected value, or +EV.
Cool, those are the basics. Now, let’s talk about how to calculate those market- and projections-based value estimates.
How to Find Market-Based NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
The below content is repurposed from our NFL player prop betting strategy guide!
If you’ve played fantasy football before, you’re probably familiar with projections. ESPN tells you that Tyreek Hill should generate 18.4 fantasy points because he’s projected for, say, 4.3 receptions, 93 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns. Those numbers are generally estimated by using a combination of Hill’s stats, his opponent’s stats and other factors. You could use those same projections to justify betting on Hill to record over 89.5 receiving yards, for instance.
We’ll talk more about projections later, but first, let’s talk about market-based betting. Instead of using stats to estimate how many yards Hill will record — or, really, how likely it is for Hill to generate X number of yards — we can use the market to accomplish something similar.
Let’s begin by walking through an example. Sportsbook A lists Hill’s receiving prop at 89.5 with the over priced at -110. Sportsbook B has the same over priced at -150, and Sportsbook C has Hill’s receiving prop at 94.5 with the over priced at -110. Sportsbook D, which you know posts sharp lines because they take a massive handle while extracting relatively little hold, has the over 94.5 priced at -105.
The above market is a very inefficient one, and it’s one you could exploit to your benefit. Let’s restate the books’ lines in sentence form to make this clearer:
- Sportsbook A: Hill has a 52.4% chance of recording at least 90 yards.
- Sportsbook B: Hill has a 60% chance of recording at least 90 yards.
- Sportsbook C: Hill has a 52.4% chance of recording at least 95 yards.
- Sportsbook D: Hill has a 51.2% chance of recording at least 95 yards.
From the above sentences, it should be clear that Sportsbook A is hanging an off-market number. The market consensus points to a much higher chance of Hill recording 90-plus yards than their odds suggest, making the over a sharp bet on their site, especially since Sportsbook D has better lines.
Using Portfolio EV to Find Market-Based NFL Player Prop Bets
But knowing which books are sharper than others — and knowing at what point your edge overcomes the hold each book, even Pinnacle, is pocketing from your wager — isn’t easy. Fortunately, Portfolio EV does the hard work for you. Let’s take a quick look at an example wager and how our product team describes each of the key terms.
Bet Size: The recommended bet size as a percentage of your bankroll. This metric is based on a fractional Kelly Criterion approach that leads to a reasonable balance of minimizing risk of ruin while maximizing potential reward.
EV: An abbreviation for “expected value,” this metric estimates the long-term profitability of a wager by taking into account the probabilities/payouts associated with each potential outcome.
xWin: The probability of winning the bet implied by the Sharp Sportsbook Algorithm true odds.
OS Rating: The OS rating provides a rating for each +EV bet. An OS rating above 20 signifies an exceptional bet. Ratings between 10 and 20 are highly favorable bets. Finally, a rating between 0 and 10 indicates a solid bet. We factor in the EV, expected win, bet size, and negative geometric drag to calculate this rating.
Hold: The synthetic hold across the entire market, which is the loss a bettor would sustain if he bet both sides of the market to win equal amounts. The larger the hold, the more difficult it is to beat that market.
How to Find Projection-Based NFL Player Prop Bets
Target High-Volume Players | NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Strategy
Sometimes, it’s just about the volume. When identifying the best value for an anytime touchdown scorer bet, we want to make sure the guy is on the quarterback’s radar. The longer odds typically represent guys who don’t see the ball as much as the -110 anytime touchdown bets, so it’s about finding the sweet spot of volume and price.
Football is about as week to week as it gets, guys step up or go down with injury. It’s a matchup league more than a talent league, meaning you can get an amazing matchup one week and be shut down the next game. That’s why staying ahead of roster movement, depth chart adjustments, and overall injuries can help.
One thing to do is keep an eye out for on any receiver or tight end injury and know who the next guy — or guys — up on the depth chart are. If a starting wide receiver hurts his ankle or knee on Sunday, he could be limited the next game, opening up more volume for a lesser target.
It could do that indirectly, too, with more coverage on the other starting receiver or top tight end, opening up some 1-on-1 coverage for a third or fourth guy on the chart. Injury isn’t the only indicator of who will get more looks on the field, but it’s a great place to start.
The other part of identifying volume is looking at “tend” over “trend” — especially with the quarterback. I don’t care who the last five touchdowns went to from Joe Burrow. Instead, I care who Burrow tends to look at more in the red zone. I want to know who Burrow tends to look at more on third and long rather than how many total touchdowns he’s thrown over his last ten games.
Play the Matchup | NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Strategy
The biggest reason why people get tripped up each week betting the NFL spread is they don’t pay attention to matchups. Most bettors see a team kill another squad and think, “yeah, they are good enough to do it again.”
If you factor in that same team playing a worse team in the standings, and money starts to pour in on the favorite. What is lost in that translation is how well the “worse” team matches up with the favorite, especially in some key areas.
That same thought process can be applied when searching out the best anytime touchdowns. Sure, Travis Kelce is going to get a ton of looks from Patrick Mahomes no matter who they play, but that doesn’t mean other guys will be frozen out of the script.
The number on Kelce will reflect how matchup proof he can be but look at how Kansas City’s opponent defends wide specific positions. Do they give up yards and scores to running backs in the red zone? If so, that’s an easy end around watered-down odds for Kelce where you have to bet multiple touchdowns for a good profit. Don’t do that. Instead look at finding the sweet spot with the matchups.
Shop, Shop, and Shop Some More | NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Strategy
It’s not a broken record rather an important message to repeat. Shop your bets. I don’t care if it’s a -110 play or you’re betting the last guy on the depth chart to score a touchdown, you have to find the best price or you are already a step behind. It’s hard enough to win a bet, let alone beat bad prices over time. On the other hand, it’s proven that if you find the best price each time you can effectively build a bankroll, even with longer shot plays. This is the first step towards profit; bottom line. There aren’t many — if any — profitable bettors over time who will tell you not to shop a price.
Remember, this is also a popular market across multiple types of bettors. We see sharps to squares to noobs to vets all gravitate towards this market, each for different reasons. Because of the popularity, books will try and squeeze some extra cents out of you, in some cases the discrepancy can be rather large. It’s imperative that we simply find the best deal here, much like you would a new car, your kid’s shoes, or groceries.
You could simply open up every book and find the person you want to bet, then go back and match up each price. Or, hear me out, you can just go to the search bar on the top of this page and type in the player’s name. You will immediately see the best place to play the bet, including what others are charging so you can see the price break. The difference between getting +105 back versus laying -105 can make an impact over time. Before you place any bet on any player doing anything, especially scoring a touchdown, make sure you have the best price on the market.
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