The Super Bowl is one of the biggest sports events to bet on, attracting both seasoned gamblers and casual fans looking to spice up their viewing experience. While the buzz around props, point spreads and moneylines is tempting, smart betting requires strategy and discipline. Let’s dive into how to bet on the Super Bowl like a pro and maximize your expected value with the help of Portfolio EV.
How to Bet on the Super Bowl Like a Pro: Super Bowl Betting Guide
Portfolio EV makes growing your bankroll and building long-term profits simple. Unlock more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL today — visit our Portfolio Betting page to get started!
Focus on Positive Expected Value (+EV) Bets
The core of successful betting is finding bets where the implied probability of the odds is lower than the true probability of the event. The Super Bowl provides countless betting opportunities, but not all are created equal.
How to Identify +EV Bets:
- Compare Odds: Use Portfolio EV to scan multiple sportsbooks and find discrepancies in odds. For example, if one book has a player prop set at 50.5 for -110 and another at 50.5 for -105, the shorter odds offer more value.
- Leverage Public Bias: The Super Bowl attracts casual bettors, creating line movement that isn’t always rational. Public money often inflates the favorite or the over, creating value on the underdog or the under.
- Understand Expected Win Rate: With Portfolio EV, you can calculate the expected win percentage (xWin%) for a bet and compare it to the implied probability of the odds. Bets with higher xWin% than implied probability are +EV bets.
Master Prop Betting
Prop bets are a hallmark of Super Bowl betting, but they’re also where sportsbooks make the most profit from recreational bettors. To gain an edge:
- Stick to Quantifiable Props: Focus on props that can be modeled, namely player performance (e.g., passing yards, rushing attempts).
- Avoid “Fun” Props: Wagers like the coin toss or halftime show outcomes are pure gambles with no +EV potential.
- Again, SHOP ODDS: Prop odds vary wildly between sportsbooks. Portfolio EV ensures you’re getting the best value.
Use Portfolio Betting for Diversification
One of the most effective ways to manage risk during the Super Bowl is by creating a diversified betting portfolio. Portfolio EV allows you to build a collection of +EV bets across multiple markets, spreading your exposure and reducing variance.
Steps to Build a Super Bowl Betting Portfolio:
- Set a Bankroll: Allocate a specific amount for Super Bowl bets, ensuring you’re not overextending yourself.
- Balance Your Portfolio: Include a mix of props, spreads, totals and moneylines to avoid overexposure to a single market.
- Track Your Bets: Use Portfolio EV to monitor your bets’ performance in real time and adjust as needed.
For more general advice on how to build a betting portfolio, we have you covered.
Capitalize on Promotions
Super Bowl betting promotions are everywhere. Use these offers to your advantage:
- Bonus Bets: Many sportsbooks offer bonus bets when you sign up or deposit. Use these for high-EV wagers.
- Odds Boosts: Carefully evaluate odds boosts. Some may offer genuine value, while others are designed to entice casual bettors.
- Arbitrage Opportunities: Promotions can create situations where you can bet both sides of a market and guarantee profit.
Unlock Portfolio EV for FREE! Follow these quick steps to access the best sports betting tools on the market:
- Choose a Partner: Select one of our partner registration offers to begin.
- Deposit & Bet: Fund your account and place your first wager or pick’em entry.
- Take Screenshots: Snap screenshots of your welcome email and first settled bet.
- Claim Your Access: Email the screenshots to support@oddsshopper.com, and we’ll grant you your free picks!
That’s all it takes! Start your free month of Portfolio EV today and take your betting game to the next level.
Avoid Common Betting Mistakes
Betting Without a Plan
Randomly throwing bets on the Super Bowl is a surefire way to lose money. Develop a strategy, stick to +EV opportunities, and track your results.
Chasing Losses
Super Bowl betting can be emotional, but chasing losses by increasing your stakes is a recipe for disaster. Follow your bankroll management plan and avoid impulsive bets.
Overloading on Props
While props can be lucrative, overloading on low-EV options dilutes your portfolio. Focus on props with clear value and measurable outcomes.
Make the Most of the Big Game
The Super Bowl is a celebration of football and one of the best opportunities to put smart betting strategies into action. By leveraging Portfolio EV, you can turn this year’s Super Bowl into a profitable experience. Take advantage of a FREE trial of Portfolio EV and start finding +EV bets right now. Don’t just bet on the Super Bowl — bet like a pro.
