Sports betting can be an exciting and potentially profitable endeavor, but long-term success requires more than just picking winners. It demands a deep understanding of the betting markets, discipline in bankroll management and the ability to withstand the inevitable ups and downs. This article explores how to make money sports betting, a long-term grind that is the overarching philosophy behind the data-driven approach of Portfolio EV. We’ll delve into understanding sports betting profit long-term, dealing with variance and losing streaks, and staying focused on the process rather than the outcome.
How to Make Money Sports Betting: Long-Term Profit
The goal of sports betting is not to win every bet but to make consistently profitable decisions over time. This is where the concept of Positive Expected Value (+EV) becomes crucial. Each bet you place should have a positive EV, meaning that if you were to make that same bet a large number of times, you would expect to come out ahead in the long run.
Sports betting profitability often comes from small edges. These edges might not seem significant on a single bet, but over hundreds or thousands of bets, they can lead to substantial profits. Portfolio EV is designed to help bettors identify these small edges by comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks and highlighting opportunities where the market may have mispriced a bet.
For instance, in NFL betting, finding a half-point difference in a spread or a slightly better payout on a moneyline might seem trivial. However, consistently taking advantage of these small differences can compound over time, contributing to long-term profitability.
Dealing with Variance and Losing Streaks
Understanding Variance
Variance is an inherent part of sports betting. Even if you make +EV bets, there will be times when you experience losing streaks due to the unpredictable nature of sports. No matter how skilled a bettor you are, variance ensures that there will be fluctuations in your bankroll.
The Psychological Impact of Losing Streaks
Losing streaks can be mentally challenging, leading to doubts about your strategy and decisions. It’s crucial to remember that short-term results do not reflect your true skill as a bettor. In the same way that a good decision in poker can result in a bad outcome due to the turn of a card, a smart bet can lose because of a last-second touchdown or a missed field goal.
Portfolio EV can help mitigate the impact of variance by ensuring that your bets are grounded in data and market analysis. However, even the best data can’t eliminate variance, so it’s essential to stay level-headed during both winning and losing streaks.
Bankroll Management as a Shield
One of the key strategies for dealing with variance is proper bankroll management. You should bet only a small percentage of your bankroll on each wager, typically between 1% and 3%. This conservative approach helps ensure that you can weather losing streaks without going bust. By preserving your bankroll, you give yourself the opportunity to continue placing +EV bets and allow your edge to play out over the long term.
Sports Betting Profit Is About the Process, Not the Outcome
Process-Oriented Thinking
A process-oriented approach means focusing on making the right decisions based on data and strategy, rather than obsessing over the outcome of individual bets. The reality is that even the best bets can lose, and poor bets can sometimes win. By concentrating on the process — such as consistently identifying value, managing your bankroll, and staying disciplined — you set yourself up for long-term success.
Using OddsShopper’s Data for Decision-Making
Portfolio EV can assist in maintaining a process-oriented mindset by providing the data you need to make informed bets. When you rely on these tools to guide your betting decisions, you’re focusing on the quality of the process rather than the randomness of the outcomes. For example, if OddsShopper’s tools indicate that a particular NFL prop bet has a significant edge, placing that bet is the correct decision, regardless of the outcome.
Avoiding the Pitfalls of Outcome Bias
Outcome bias occurs when bettors judge the quality of a decision based on its result rather than the decision-making process. This can lead to poor betting practices, such as chasing losses or abandoning a sound strategy after a few bad outcomes. By staying committed to a process-oriented approach, you can avoid the pitfalls of outcome bias and continue making +EV bets, which will pay off in the long run.
Concluding Thoughts on How to Make Money Sports Betting
The journey to sports betting profitability is a long-term grind that requires patience, discipline and a commitment to process over results. By understanding the long-term nature of sports betting, effectively managing variance and losing streaks and staying focused on making the right decisions, you can navigate the ups and downs of the betting world. And just in time for NFL season, the data-driven tools provided by OddsShopper are ready to ease you into the process of NFL +EV Betting by finding you those edges up to the minute.
