When it comes to NFL betting, not all sportsbooks are created equal. Some sportsbooks lead the market by setting the initial lines, while others follow suit, adjusting their odds based on the lines set by these market makers. Understanding the difference between the two is critical for identifying positive expected value (+EV) opportunities and making profitable NFL bets over the long term. Here we will look at both market-maker sportsbooks and line-following books in an effort to unlock your best chance to do well while making some +EV NFL bets — spoiler alert: Your best chance is using Portfolio EV and Tails by OddsShopper to stay on top of market value and proper sports betting strategy.
Market-Maker Sportsbooks: Unlock +EV NFL Betting
Market-making sportsbooks play a vital role in shaping the entire sports betting ecosystem. These sportsbooks are the sharpest in the industry because they actively accept bets from professional bettors and sharp players who have deep knowledge of the sport and market. Instead of avoiding sharp action, market makers embrace it, adjusting their lines based on the action they take.
Some well-known market makers include Pinnacle and Circa, whose lines are typically the most trusted and reliable in the industry. Because these sportsbooks actively take action from sharp bettors, their odds become the benchmark for all others. Their lines are incredibly efficient, leaving little room for exploitation — but only at these specific books.
Line-Following Sportsbooks: The Hunt for Inefficiencies
Not all sportsbooks operate with the same sophistication as market makers. Many sportsbooks — particularly local or smaller ones — simply copy the lines from market-making sportsbooks and adjust them based on public betting action or by mimicking market moves. These sportsbooks are slower to adjust when new information or sharp betting shifts the market, leading to potential market inefficiencies.
This is where savvy bettors can find opportunities. Because non-market-making books aren’t as quick or efficient in line adjustments, their odds can sometimes lag behind those of the market makers, offering softer lines that don’t reflect the true probability of an outcome. Spotting these discrepancies between market-making books and line-followers is key to finding +EV bets.
For example, let’s say Pinnacle releases a line on an NFL game with the New England Patriots as 6-point favorites, but a smaller sportsbook still has the line set at -5.5. If you trust the market maker’s line, this small difference could represent value — an edge you can exploit for profit.
Monitoring Line Movements for +EV Opportunities
One of the most powerful tools at a bettor’s disposal is the ability to monitor line movements across different sportsbooks. Market-making sportsbooks typically lead the charge in adjusting lines based on sharp action and new information, such as injury reports or weather changes. Smaller or less sophisticated books, however, may be slower to react, creating soft lines that don’t properly reflect the latest developments.
Keeping an eye on how lines move at different sportsbooks allows you to identify where you can exploit market inefficiency. For instance, if you see significant line movement at a sharp book but no corresponding movement at a smaller book, it’s a sign that the latter might still have a +EV betting opportunity.
How Portfolio EV and Tails by OddsShopper Can Help Maximize Value
To truly maximize +EV opportunities, bettors need tools that help them make sense of line movements and market inefficiencies in real time. That’s where Portfolio EV and Tails by OddsShopper come into play.
Portfolio EV is designed to help bettors build a diversified portfolio of bets that maximizes expected value. It tracks and analyzes line movements across multiple sportsbooks, allowing you to quickly spot discrepancies and inefficiencies between market makers and smaller sportsbooks. By incorporating these inefficiencies into your betting strategy, Portfolio EV can help you target soft lines and odds to capitalize on them before they adjust.
Tails by OddsShopper, meanwhile, gives you direct access to sharp bettors to see what NFL bets they are making.
You can sign up to tail insiders both inside and outside of the OddsShopper team and engage with your fellow betting community to see the gaps and soft lines the sharps are finding. This will help you get on the right side of line moves early so you can lock in +EV opportunities before the lines shift.
By combining both of these OddsShopper resources, bettors can not only spot inefficiencies but also take advantage of sharp betting insights, ensuring they stay ahead of the curve.
Conclusion: Leverage the Market and Tools for +EV Success
Understanding the distinction between market-making sportsbooks and line followers is crucial for long-term NFL betting profitability. By focusing on line movements at market makers and hunting for inefficiencies at slower-adjusting sportsbooks, bettors can regularly find +EV bets that lead to a profitable grind over time.
With the help of tools like Portfolio EV and Tails by OddsShopper, identifying and capitalizing on these soft lines becomes even more efficient, giving you a significant edge in the competitive world of NFL betting. Subscribe today and start getting ahead of the NFL markets early!
