The NFL is making its triumphant return, and, once it’s back, you’ll want to be making money on your bets, right? While it can be difficult to stick to one NFL betting strategy all season, the tips outlined in our anytime touchdown betting guide and NFL player prop betting guide are good places to start — or you can just check out our NFL +EV bets and free NFL expert picks if you want sharp plays directly. Let’s tackle some key NFL betting advice as we break down expert tips to keep you from going broke.
NFL Betting Advice: 5 Key Expert Tips to Keep You Afloat
NFL Betting Advice: 5 Key Expert Tips to Keep You Afloat
Tip #1: Make Sure You Know What You’re Getting Into | NFL Betting Advice
Before diving into advanced strategies, ensure you have a solid grasp of the basics. NFL betting typically involves point spreads, moneylines, totals (over/under) and player props.
Point spreads are used to balance the playing field by giving the underdog a head start. Moneylines are straightforward bets on which team will win, while totals predict the combined score of both teams. Player props involve specific statistics that players may record in a game.
If you’ve placed an NFL bet before, that all must sound pretty basic — but don’t forget that much of the public still lacks some basic sports betting literacy.
Understanding these fundamental concepts is crucial for making informed bets.
Tip #2: Identify Bets with Positive Expected Value (+EV) | NFL Betting Advice
If you don’t know what positive expected value (+EV) means, you’re not alone. It’s a long way of describing a bet that you expect to be profitable over the long term.
To calculate +EV, you must first calculate the probability of the outcome you’re betting on. You can do this by taking a projections- or market-based approach.
A projections-based sports betting strategy is pretty intuitive: You’re using stats, trends, and such to estimate the chance of an outcome.
A market-based strategy is often less intuitive. To follow this approach, you’d be taking the odds from across the market to estimate a consensus, then playing lines that beat that consensus by a certain amount.
OddsShopper’s NFL betting model does the hard work for you by indexing the odds from across the market to spit out +EV bets. You’ll often find lots of +EV NFL player props due to how inefficient those markets often are.
Tip #3: Spot Market Inefficiencies! | NFL Betting Advice
Different sportsbooks often have varying odds for the same bet. By comparing these odds, you can identify market inefficiencies. For example, if one sportsbook offers the New England Patriots at +150 while another lists them at +120, the discrepancy indicates that the first sportsbook might be undervaluing the Patriots’ chances.
Taking advantage of such market inefficiencies can lead to profitable betting opportunities.
To find these inefficiencies, track the odds across multiple sportsbooks. Pay attention to sharp books (those known for setting accurate lines) and compare their odds with those of other sportsbooks (or, you know, use the tools we just talked about!). If you spot a significant difference, it could be a sign of a valuable bet.
Tip #4: Used Advanced Stats Like Expected Points Added (EPA) | NFL Betting Advice
Beyond traditional stats like points scored or yards gained, advanced metrics can provide deeper insights into team performance. Expected points added (EPA) is one such metric that measures a team’s efficiency in adding or subtracting points based on their offensive or defensive plays.
EPA is useful for evaluating how well a team performs compared to their results. For instance, a team with a high EPA per play might have performed better than their win-loss record suggests.
By incorporating EPA into your analysis, you can make more informed predictions about future games and identify bets that align with underlying team strengths and weaknesses.
Tip #5: Read (and Understand!) the Injury Report | NFL Betting Advice
Injuries can significantly impact team performance and betting odds. Staying updated on NFL injury reports allows you to assess how the absence of key players might affect the game. For example, if a star quarterback is listed as questionable, their potential absence could shift the odds and create valuable betting opportunities.
When evaluating injury reports, consider not only the likelihood of a player’s absence but also the quality of their replacement. For example, if a top quarterback is injured and replaced by a less experienced backup, the impact on the team’s performance can be substantial. Additionally, pay attention to practice reports and insider information to gauge the actual probability of a player’s participation.
