There’s often a rush in sports betting to take the favorites, but savvy bettors know there’s value in betting on the underdogs — especially when using the right tools to find those profitable opportunities. With Portfolio EV, we can create a personalized betting portfolio that caters specifically to betting underdogs. Here we are going to break down how to bet on underdogs with Portfolio EV: OnlyDogs, if you will.
How to Bet Underdogs Using Portfolio EV
One of the best features of Portfolio EV is the ability to build a betting portfolio tailored specifically to your preferences and strategies. It’s not just about blindly following recommendations or betting on whatever looks good at the moment. Instead, you can refine your approach based on what aligns with your goals.
For this strategy, Josh set up a filter on Portfolio EV that narrows down bets to only those with plus-money odds (i.e., underdogs), an OS rating of 2 or higher and an expected win rate of at least 50%. In essence, these are bets where the odds are in the underdog’s favor, but the data shows they should be the favorite.
The result is a portfolio filled with nothing but undervalued underdogs, backed by data and analysis. This strategy isn’t about betting every dog in sight, but rather focusing on those with strong statistical backing that could yield profitable returns.
Backing Up the Bets with Historical Data
Here is the portfolio Josh is using for OnlyDogs:
To give you a sense of how this plays out in real-world betting, let’s look at some historical results. In the previous season, we recommended 16,363 bets that met these criteria. Of those, 8,764 were wins and 7,599 were losses for an impressive ROI of 9.1%. This season, the results have continued to be solid, with 2,227 bets recommended so far going 1,162-1,065 and earning a 6.2% ROI.
This history highlights the effectiveness of betting on these underdog opportunities. Even when you’re betting on underdogs, the right data and strategy can lead to consistent profits over time.
Portfolio EV: Setting Up Your Underdog Betting Challenge
The key to success in betting on underdogs with Portfolio EV is staying organized and disciplined. When a bet meets the criteria — plus-money odds, a 2 OS rating or better and an expected win rate of at least 50% — Josh gets an immediate notification. This allows him to act quickly on opportunities while keeping his strategy consistent.
To keep things transparent and trackable, Josh decided to set a starting bankroll of $700 and will place $100 at each of the following sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel, ESPN BET, Caesars, BetMGM, bet365 and Fanatics. The bet size will be adjusted daily based on his total bankroll, as recommended by Portfolio EV, ensuring Josh is not overexposing himself while making the most of each opportunity.
Why Bet Only Underdogs?
So why focus on betting only underdogs? The answer lies in value betting and creating a portfolio that can generate consistent returns.
By identifying underdogs that should be favorites (according to the data), you’re capitalizing on mispriced lines in the market.
The odds are higher for underdogs, and when the data backs them up, those extra points can make a significant difference.
Additionally, betting on underdogs at plus money gives you the chance to double your bet amount with every win.
This adds an exciting element to betting while also offering the potential for greater returns, provided you’re making data-driven decisions and not simply betting for the sake of it.
The Challenge and Results
As Josh moves forward with this strategy, he will be tracking every single bet made using this OnlyDogs approach and posting daily results. While Josh won’t post every bet he makes (that’s part of the Portfolio EV experience), he will share the results regularly, especially on big sports days. You can follow along as Josh progresses with this bankroll challenge, comparing it to other betting challenges like Greg Ehrenberg’s, but from a different angle. It’s all about using the right data to attack underdog bets that have value.
