Parlays in sports betting, particularly in the NFL, are often perceived as risky due to the all-or-nothing nature of the wager. However, when each individual leg of a parlay has a positive expected value (+EV), the combined parlay is also +EV, which means it is a profitable bet over time. This concept is rooted in principles best explained by the book “The Logic of Sports Betting,” which emphasizes the importance of price-sensitive betting and exploiting market inefficiencies. By leveraging tools like the OddsShopper Parlay Builder, bettors can enhance their chances of finding +EV parlays. Now let’s get into NFL parlays and explain how to create +EV opportunities.
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Positive EV NFL Parlays: Why They Work & How to Build Them
The Concept of +EV Betting
A bet is considered +EV when the odds offered by a sportsbook provide a payout that is higher than the actual probability of the event occurring. This is explained by the “breakeven” point of bets — the point where bets on a long-term timeframe become profitable. At OddsShopper, our team meticulously calculates the ‘true odds,’ which represent the fair odds based on the actual probability of a bet winning. When you find sportsbook odds that are longer than these true odds, you’ve identified a +EV bet. By strategically combining these +EV bets into a parlay, you have now increased your expected ROI.
Example of a +EV Parlay
Let’s use a hypothetical NFL parlay involving two NFL player props: Jalen Hurts rushing yards and Justin Jefferson receptions.
If you aren’t familiar, player props are bets that are not on the game outcome. And because there are a lot more options for player props given the quantity of players, you are generally going to have an easier time finding props with positive value than you are game lines like the moneyline and total.
Hurts under 62.5 yards rushing has +110 odds at BetMGM Based on how likely our projections deem Hurts to be to rush for fewer than 62.5 yards, these BetMGM odds are longer than we believe they should be — thus giving the bettor an edge and making this Hurts bet 6.4% +EV.
In Jefferson’s case, his chance of winning makes the true odds of shorter than the +120 BetMGM odds — so again, +EV, this time at 5.9%
When you parlay these two bets, since both legs are +EV, the parlay itself is also +EV at 6.13% +EV.
Leveraging the OddsShopper Parlay Builder
Finding these +EV opportunities can be challenging, but the OddsShopper Parlay Builder makes this process more efficient and effective. Here’s how it works:
- Comparison of Odds Across Sportsbooks: The Parlay Builder scans multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds for each leg of your parlay. By comparing these odds, you can identify where the market is offering value, allowing you to exploit these inefficiencies.
- Automated +EV Identification: The tool is designed to automatically highlight bets that are +EV based on real-time data and advanced algorithms. This saves time and increases your chances of building a profitable parlay.
- Customizable Strategies: Whether you’re looking to parlay favorites or mix and match underdogs, the Parlay Builder Tool allows you to customize your strategy to suit your risk tolerance and betting goals.
- Enhanced Value: By combining these +EV bets into a parlay using the best available odds, the potential payout is maximized while maintaining a positive expected value.
Conclusion
NFL parlays can indeed be NFL +EV bets when both legs are +EV, as long as you carefully analyze the odds and probabilities involved. Tools like the OddsShopper Parlay Builder can significantly enhance your ability to identify and capitalize on these opportunities by automating much of the heavy lifting. By using such tools, you’re not only making informed betting decisions but also giving yourself the best chance to maximize returns over time.
