When it comes to betting on the NFL, understanding how to read and interpret public betting data is crucial for making informed decisions. By analyzing bet percentages, money percentages and other key market indicators, you can gain insights into market sentiment and identify opportunities to bet against the public. This article will guide you through the process of reading public NFL betting data and how to use tools like Portfolio EV to enhance your betting strategy.
How to Read Public NFL Betting Data
Public NFL betting data typically includes two primary metrics: Bet percentages and money percentages.
Bet Percentage: This represents the percentage of total bets placed on a particular side of a game. For example, if 70% of bets are on the New England Patriots to cover the spread against the Miami Dolphins, the bet percentage for the Patriots is 70%.
Money Percentage: This reflects the percentage of total money wagered on a particular side of a game. If 80% of the money is being bet on the Patriots to cover, then the money percentage for the Patriots is 80%.
At first glance, these two percentages may seem similar, but they can tell you very different things. A large discrepancy between bet percentages and money percentages is a potential indicator of sharp action — bets placed by professional bettors who often have more sophisticated insights and/or strategy than the general public.
How Sportsbooks Set Lines
A key part of reading public NFL betting data is understanding how sportsbooks set lines and how public perception can influence these lines. Bookmakers don’t just set lines based on their own analysis; they also adjust them based on how they expect the public to bet.
Market Efficiency: Betting markets tend to be more efficient closer to game time, meaning the lines better reflect the true probability of outcomes. However, early in the week or when lines first open, there may be opportunities to capitalize on market inefficiencies, especially when public sentiment heavily skews one side.
Sharp vs. Public Money: Miller emphasizes the value in identifying where sharp money is going versus where public money is concentrated. Sharp money often moves lines, while public money may create value on the opposite side. If the bet percentage is high on one team but the money percentage is higher on the other, this could indicate that sharp bettors are placing larger wagers on the less popular side.
Identifying Opportunities to Fade the Public
Fading the public is a common strategy based on the idea that the general public tends to bet emotionally rather than rationally. Again, look for significant differences between bet and money percentages to be aware of sharp money. It will also behoove you to track how the betting line moves in response to public action. If the line moves in the opposite direction of where most of the money is, it might indicate that the sportsbook is adjusting to sharp action. This could present an opportunity to bet against the public as well.
Luckily for you, we have a great way for you to keep on top of potential sharp opportunities and line movement: Tails By OddsShopper! There you can gather bets and strategy from real sharp bettors and improve you process for understanding past and future picks. Explore our list of OddsShopper Tails below:
Portfolio EV and Public NFL Betting Data
Portfolio EV is a valuable resource that can help you refine your betting strategy. These tools provide real-time data on where the money is flowing, which sportsbooks offer the best odds and the expected value of different bets.
Positive Expected Value: Portfolio EV calculates the expected value of a bet by comparing the odds you’re getting with the implied probability of an outcome.
This helps you identify bets where the odds are in your favor — if a bet has positive expected value, that means it would be profitable if you were to make the same bet over time.
How to Use OddsShopper: OddsShopper compares odds across multiple sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best possible value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can have a significant impact on your long-term profitability.
Public Betting Trends: OddsShopper also allows you to see how the direction of the bets and money is affecting odds and value across the industry. This can help you spot opportunities to fade the public or follow sharp action.
Concluding Thoughts
Reading NFL betting markets effectively requires a deep understanding of how public sentiment and sharp money influence line movements. By leveraging Portfolio EV and staying on top of line movement and possible sharp money, you can improve your ability to identify value in the market and make more informed bets. Remember, the key to long-term success in sports betting is not just picking winners, but finding value where others don’t.
