If you’re serious about long-term success in sports betting, understanding how to size your bets is just as important as picking winners. Two of the most common bankroll strategies are Flat Betting and the Kelly Criterion — and choosing the right one can have a major impact on your bottom line.
In this FAQ, we break down the key differences between Flat Betting vs. Kelly Criterion, helping you understand the pros, cons and which we prefer. We also explain how to use find our Kelly Criterion Calculator tool, which automates the math for smarter.
Flat Betting vs. Kelly Criterion FAQs: Kelly Tool, Bankrolls & More
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What is Flat Betting?
Flat betting means wagering the same amount on every bet, regardless of confidence or perceived edge. This approach simplifies betting, reduces the risk from mistakes, and stabilizes your returns.
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion adjusts your bet sizes based on the perceived edge — larger edges lead to larger bets, smaller edges lead to smaller bets. While theoretically optimal, it introduces increased complexity, variance and risk.
Why Does OddsShopper Recommend Flat Betting?
- Faster Betting: Quickly place multiple bets without manual adjustments, ensuring you capitalize on opportunities before market lines shift.
- Reduced Variance: Less time per bet allows you to place more bets, effectively spreading risk and creating more stable returns. This enables confident deployment of larger portions of your bankroll.
- Lower Risk of Errors: Even top-tier algorithms can occasionally produce false positives (incorrectly identified high-value bets). Flat betting ensures these rare mistakes don’t disproportionately impact your bankroll.
- Less Likely to be Limited: Sportsbooks frequently limit bettors who vary bet sizes, as this behavior indicates sharp betting.
- Practical for Limited Accounts: Eventually, successful bettors face betting limits from sportsbooks. Flat betting remains practical, whereas the advantages of Kelly betting diminish when limits are imposed.
Does Flat Betting Limit Profitability?
Not in our experience. Flat betting allows for safe placement of more bets each day, leading to consistent and potentially greater long-term profits through sustainable bankroll growth.
Does OddsShopper Have a Kelly Criterion Calculator?
Though we recommend flat betting, yes, OddsShopper has a Kelly tool. When building portfolios in the Portfolio Lab, the dropdown under “Bet Sizing” gives you the option to use Flat Betting or OS Kelly Bet Sizing.
Bottom Line
Flat betting is simpler, safer, and realistically more profitable long-term for portfolio bettors.
Click here for our detailed article on Flat Betting vs. Kelly Criterion.
