Two races in, and the Formula 1 picture looks pretty clear. Sergio Perez took home first at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, followed by Max Verstappen in second, and it is clearer than ever that one team is going to dominate much of the 2023 F1 season. As such, for this week’s Australian Grand Prix, the focus will be on value spots and offer a chance for F1 bettors to back into some wins — because it looks like the top of the grid is going to be pretty solidified. With that in mind, let’s take a look at 2023 Australian Grand Prix odds and best bets.
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Formula 1 Race First Look: Australian Grand Prix Odds
Why waste time? The Red Bulls are so much faster than every other car that it makes the mid-2010s Mercedes era look like a time of parity. Verstappen went from 15th to fourth, and ultimately to second, like it was nothing, and Perez cleaned house en route to an easy victory. No other car even remotely competed, and Fernando Alonso took another podium, albeit with several hours of confusion and controversy post-race. All told, Saudi Arabia told Formula 1 fans basically the exact same story that Bahrain did.
Check out updated odds (12 best outright odds) for the Australian Grand Prix, according to DraftKings.
Betting on any car other than a Red Bull to win is just throwing away money; maybe one car will retire, but it is highly unlikely that both will. It also seems unlikely that Verstappen will again encounter car troubles during qualifying that will force him to start the race in the back half of the grid. As such, betting Verstappen to win is the safest play by far, but if doing so, parlay it with a Perez top-3/top-6 bet as well to at least extract some value. If you insist on playing an outright and want to get some value with a bet, side with Perez — though he has never won back-to-back races in his career.
Instead, the trick for most events this year will come down to places 3 through 10. There is no doubt through two races that Aston Martin — specifically the one driven by Alonso — is the second-fastest car on the grid. And there is also no denying that Alpine is in fifth place. Third and fourth, however, may end up being a week-to-week thing. Ferrari looked faster than Mercedes in Bahrain, but Mercedes looked significantly better in Saudi Arabia.
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While it is safe to assume Verstappen and Perez will occupy two podium spots in most races, Alonso is not going to completely dominate that third spot week in and week out like he has through two events. George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc will certainly make their runs at top-3 finishes throughout the season. Plus, Leclerc took both pole position and first place last year, so he clearly likes the track. But until Ferrari shows something more, it is better to side with the Mercedes in the early going, and Russell appears to be more comfortable than his teammate Hamilton right now. He is also slightly longer than Hamilton in DraftKings‘ podium odds, sitting at +350 to Hamilton’s +300, so that is where the lean will be.
As for top-6/top-10 plays, the Lance Stroll buzz hit a slight snag last week, with Stroll forced to retire early on. Even still, he is -175 to place top 6, a feat he accomplished in Bahrain. That seems a little short despite Aston Martin’s strong showings, and Stroll is as live as any driver in a top car to wreck given his track record. Esteban Ocon, on the other hand, placed seventh at this track last season and improved last race after a dismal season opener in Bahrain, ultimately finishing eighth. Stroll is definitely faster right now, but Ocon (and to a lesser extent, the other Alpine driver, Pierre Gasly) offers more intrigue as a longshot play.
For one final longshot, look to Yuki Tsunoda as a top-10 play. Why the McLarens are where they are in the odds is unclear — the team looks miserable, and the results are speaking for themselves. Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris placed 15th and 17th, respectively, in Saudi Arabia — and Piastri’s 15th place was McLaren’s best showing this year. Meanwhile, Tsunoda has finished 11th two races in a row, and in both he was in the points much of the drive before giving way late to more experienced drivers. This could be Tsunoda’s week to finally close the deal and get in the points.
Australian Grand Prix Value Bets: George Russell Top 3 (+350) Esteban Ocon Top 6 (+450); Yuki Tsunoda Top 10 (+275)
