Azerbaijan went according to plan, with Red Bull teammates Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen taking first and second yet again. Now Formula 1 makes the trip to the United States for the second-ever Miami Grand Prix. Verstappen took the top of the podium in Miami last season, but has Perez caught up to his teammate to the point where they should both be considered favorites? Can perennial points bubble sitter Yuki Tsunoda make the leap closer to the top of the grid? Let’s explore some Formula 1 bets for the Miami Grand Prix.
Best Formula 1 Bets & Expert Prediction | Miami Grand Prix
How Did Last Year’s Race Shake Out?
Last season’s Miami Grand Prix was a pretty standard 2022 race, with Ferrari qualifying 1/2 before dropping to second and third behind Verstappen. It wasn’t a blowaway win for Verstappen, but he did clear Ferrari drivers Charles Leclerc by 3.7 seconds and Carlos Sainz by 8.2 despite starting the race behind both. With Perez grabbing fourth place, it was a classic Red Bull/Ferrari domination of the top 4, followed by Mercedes occupying fifth and sixth.
There were quite a few big leaps on the grid, however. Most notable were Esteban Ocon going from 20th at the start to eighth for Alpine, George Russell finishing fifth despite starting 12th and Alex Albon going from 18th to ninth. And these huge leaps were only aided by three retirements, so it was not like the huge pileup at Australia a few weeks back that vaulted a bunch of cars into the points — it was simply an overtake-heavy day in Miami.
There were, however, two major penalties that impacted these places. Fernando Alonso finished eighth but received two five-second penalties that bumped him back to 11th. Daniel Ricciardo finished 11th but had one five-second penalty that pushed him to 13th.
All told, this was a typical day of Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes all being a level above the other cars.
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What to Expect From Miami in 2023?
Ferrari — well, Leclerc — finally looked great in Baku. Leclerc took poll in both the grand prix qualifying and sprint showdown, ultimately losing both the race and the sprint to Perez. However, Leclerc finally got every last bit out of the clearly inferior Ferrari car, so he is back in podium consideration as arguably the best driver on the grid not named Max Verstappen. Sainz, on the other hand, though he finished fifth and held off Lewis Hamilton, was 24 seconds slower than his teammate Leclerc. Whether that was due to strategy or ability, Sainz is clearly so far behind Leclerc at this point that it is hard to take him seriously as a betting target.
As always, Red Bulls — both of them — are going to win barring crashes or car troubles. The problem is that it is clear now that Verstappen is not overwhelmingly ahead of Perez necessarily since they have the same number of wins this year. A Red Bull is going to win, but Perez is neck and neck with Verstappen now — that is how good the Red Bull car is.
The real question is figuring out the rest of the podium and the rest of the top 10. There is only one race at Miami to use for track history, and enough has flipped this year that bettors will have to lean on a small sample of data to draw conclusions.
Essentially, here is a list of drivers who both did well at last year’s Miami race and are regularly putting forth points-contending finishes in 2023:
- Max Verstappen
- Sergio Perez
- Charles Leclerc
- Carlos Sainz
- Fernando Alonso
- Lance Stroll
- Lewis Hamilton
- George Russell
- Esteban Ocon
- Valtteri Bottas
And then there are the two McLarens in Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, who are getting a lot out of a weaker car but don’t have history at Miami. Norris qualified eighth last year but had to retire due to a collision, while Piastri is a rookie and has never raced.
Plus, Yuki Tsunoda has steadily improved each race this year and has arguably been one of the best drivers (independent of car quality) on the grid this year. He placed 12th in Miami in 2022, but this year he finished 11th twice and 10th twice, so he is firmly in points contention.
The only thing for absolute certain is Red Bull getting two cars with race-winning performance as long as they stay intact. Pretty much everything else is on the table given how all over the place the top 10 has been this year.
Best Formula 1 Bets for the Miami Grand Prix
Check out updated odds from DraftKings:
Top 3 Finish
Perez is getting increasingly more valuable as a plus-money outright option since he is inching closer to Verstappen’s level on the track. Verstappen did not have engine issues or anything in Baku and still could not catch Perez in either the grand prix or the sprint. Now, it is still best to count on Verstappen winning any given race, but clearly Perez can win even in non-fluky (crashes, engine troubles) situations.
If there is one team worth confidence (aside from Red Bull) this week, it is Aston Martin. Both of its drivers have been strong, and both Stroll and Alonso performed well in worse cars at the 2022 Miami Grand Prix. With Aston Martin now a top-4 car (arguably second from a full-season perspective), both Alonso and Stroll deserve looks in the betting market. Unfortunately, Alonso is still -110 for a podium, so he is best used as part of a parlay — or as a +1400 shot to win for those playing longshots. Stroll, on the other hand, is plus money for a top-6, so that is a good starting point. A podium is a little out of reach, but it is not a ridiculous flier at +1000.
The Alpines are no longer in the picture here — they still are well ahead of McLaren drivers in all markets, and the performance from Ocon and Pierre Gasly absolutely has not merited that. Ocon did do well at Miami last year, but again, that one-race sample is too small to say Ocon has great track history.
The McLarens are also simply not reliable enough, even though Norris and Piastri have improved and driven well the last few races. They need a few more strong showings to justify bets — remember, not long ago McLaren was pushing for the title of worst car in the paddock.
For now, Stroll to finish top 6 has the best combination of win expectancy and favorable odds.
Best Formula 1 Bet: Lance Stroll Top 6 (+125)
Tsunoda has driven extremely well this year, so we’re going to go with a super longshot this week for Miami. He placed 12th in Miami last season and has been consistently on the points bubble in 2023. Is it outrageous to say he can make a one-race leap into the top 6? He has been a bit more consistent than Gasly, Ocon, Norris and Piastri, who all have shorter top-6 odds. If he can beat those four, he just needs something to happen to three other top-8 drivers to pay off massive +1600 odds. Again, it’s a real longshot, but Tsunoda can make it happen if Miami proves to be a highly variable race like it was last season.
Best Formula 1 Longshot Bet: Yuki Tsunoda Top 6 (+1600)
