Coming off yet another Red Bull domination in Australia, Formula 1 heads to Baku for the 2023 Azerbaijan Formula 1 Grand Prix. This is one of the most anticipated races of the season, with drivers and teams looking to secure valuable points and assert their dominance on the track. The Baku City Circuit is known for its tight corners and high-speed straights, providing an exciting and challenging environment for the competitors. As the race approaches, let’s take a look at some of the best Formula 1 bets and see where the value lies in a longshot or two.
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Best Formula 1 Bets & Expert Prediction | Azerbaijan Grand Prix
How Did Last Year’s Race Shake Out?
While Baku is hosting the fourth race of 2023, it happened a bit later into last season, running instead in mid-June. That race came at a time when Red Bull had firmly taken the wind out of Ferrari’s hopeful sails, having won the previous four grands prix, with Max Verstappen taking first in three of those. Red Bull continued the streak in Baku as Verstappen placed first despite Charles Leclerc taking pole position.
Now, both Ferraris, Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, retired from the race, and Leclerc was in first when his engine gave out. But given the way the race proceeded from there — Verstappen finishing nearly 21 seconds ahead of his teammate Sergio Perez (who took second) and Perez another 25 seconds faster than third place George Russell — Leclerc’s retirement may not have affected the top of the podium. All told, it was an absolute blowout for Red Bull.
Mercedes had a good showing last year, with Russell and Lewis Hamilton placing third and fourth, respectively, and recent results with them suggest they should be in the running for a podium again this year. But the big leap at Baku came from Pierre Gasly, who qualified sixth and finished fifth in an AlphaTauri, one of the two or three worst cars on the grid last season. McLaren also finished fairly well — Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris went eighth and ninth.
What to Expect From Baku in 2023?
One thing about this weekend to note is that it is a sprint weekend. In the past, that meant bettors would have to consider the outcome of the sprint race when placing bets on the grand prix since the sprint determined the grid positions for Sunday. But as of this week, the sprint format is different, with Friday qualifying setting the Sunday race order, and then Saturday qualifying setting the order for Saturday’s sprint — it is still a bit of a confusing mess, but a touch less farcical than past sprint weekends since sprints do not factor into the grand prix.
This will also be the first true street race of the season for Formula 1 — at least in terms of the quantity of tight corners and close barriers — so it is a whole new ballgame relative to what drivers have seen so far. That said, let’s try to make some connections between this year and last.
On the one hand, taking Ferrari’s retirements last year out of the equation makes sense since that is not predictable. On the other, Leclerc has failed to finish two out of three races this season, so clearly something is not clicking with the car. Sainz was fast last time out, but he bumped Fernando Alonso in a late-race restart that directly led to a cluster of collisions and ultimately a race-losing penalty for Sainz. The consistency just is not there for Ferrari at this point.
Mercedes, meanwhile, has looked great the last few races. Russell had some hard luck in Australia, as he led early before pitting for a safety car that ultimately turned into a red flag — thus giving all cars a free pit and wasting Russell’s theoretical advantage of pitting with the safety car. And then his car caught on fire. Hamilton finished second and had essentially a flawless drive — at least according to longtime rival Alonso.
Speaking of Alonso, he is on a three-race podium streak now and looks unstoppable in the Aston Martin. Alonso finished seventh in an Alpine last year in Azerbaijan, and Aston Martin is a good bit faster than Alpine in 2023, so podium is absolutely in play once again. His teammate, Lance Stroll, really struggled at Baku last season, placing 16th after qualifying 19th — but he is coming off of a solid drive in Australia that placed him fourth, just behind Alonso.
Gasly could be the one to watch here. He was phenomenal in Baku last year while driving an inferior car, and he has driven pretty well this year. Gasly recorded points in the first two races and was challenging Sainz all day for fourth place before the restart — the one that led to Sainz’s penalty and ultimately saw Gasly taking out himself and his teammate Esteban Ocon. If he can keep his car on the track this time, Gasly has shown that he drives Baku quite well — one of his three career podiums came in Baku just two years ago.
Best Formula 1 Bets for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Check out updated odds from DraftKings.
Top 3 Finish
Nothing about the top of the outright board is particularly interesting since Verstappen and Perez are so far out in front of the field, both in odds and in performance. Again, there is little value in taking any non-Red Bull driver to win as anything more than a total flier.
Instead, look to some of the plus-money podium plays. Hamilton and Russell are obvious choices at +150 and +250, respectively, as they have been two of the best drivers on the grid early on this season. Stroll to break through with a podium after placing fourth in Australia also looks like a solid play at +550. Leclerc and Sainz to podium are getting decent odds as well, but there is too much uncertainty with Ferrari to play either with confidence. Leclerc is going to have a good drive sooner or later — he is too talented not to — so he would be the option between the two if playing a Ferrari to podium. For now, Hamilton is the best podium play given how well he has performed the last two races.
Best Formula 1 Bet: Lewis Hamilton to Podium (+150)
For a longer shot, there is a lot to like about Gasly this weekend. He had an excellent drive in Australia that was curtailed very late by a crash (that was partially but not entirely his fault). Plus, Gasly has good recent history at Baku, placing third and fifth in his last two races there. As a top-6 play at +450, he looks great — and could even be worth a sprinkle as a +3500 podium longshot for those playing for chaos to ensue.
Best Formula 1 Bet: Pierre Gasly Top 6 (+450)
