With one race down, a lot has already taken shape for the 2023 Formula 1 season. One team looks completely dominant, one looks completely miserable, one looks dramatically improved, and the rest are fighting with varying levels of expectations. Now Formula 1 heads to Jeddah for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, with Max Verstappen and Fernando Alonso serving as the news headliners. Let’s take a look at last week’s race and preview Saudi Arabian Grand Prix odds to see where there is some value for Formula 1 picks.
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Formula 1 Race First Look: Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Odds
If the last 12 months had not already made it clear, Bahrain certainly did: No one is touching Red Bull — and specifically Max Verstappen — in 2023. Even with Aston Martin’s impressive performance, the Red Bull cars were so much faster than the others that the front of the grid essentially lost all drama before even reaching Lap 30. Even Mercedes driver George Russell — who finished seventh in Bahrain — admitted that Red Bull should win every race this season.
To put some numbers to it, third-place Fernando Alonso finished nearly 27 seconds behind Red Bull’s Sergio Perez. And yes, Charles Leclerc was in third before suffering engine failure on Lap 41, but he himself was 15 seconds behind Perez. At best, third place was going to finish 15 seconds behind the slower Red Bull, and both Red Bulls were coasting with about 20 laps to go. It is conceivable that they could have separated from the field by 30-plus seconds.
The gap between Verstappen at No. 1 and Perez at No. 2 was also substantial, with Verstappen finishing 12 seconds ahead of his teammate. So in other words, there is a huge gap between the Red Bulls and every other car on the grid, and a similar gap between Verstappen and Perez in those cars.
So what does this mean in terms of betting the rest of the season? Essentially, it means stop wasting money betting on any outright besides Verstappen, with maybe an occasional Perez flier to play the possibility of a Verstappen crash. But for the time being, if both Red Bulls reach the finish line, it is safe to assume that at least one will do so in first place (and 9 times out of 10 it will be Verstappen).
Vegas is even gung-ho on Verstappen as a lock to win the Drivers Championship, as he is -360 to do so. Tied for second place are Lewis Hamilton and Alonso at +1000.
Here are the other big takeaways from Bahrain, ranked in order of importance:
Alonso grabbed a podium in his first race with Aston Martin and described as his car as “a lovely car to drive.” The mercurial Lance Stroll finished sixth coming off major injury to both wrists, so his ceiling seems to be regular podium contender this year as well.
2. McLaren is not close to a contender for fourth place anymore
Lando Norris did his best in qualifying, but come race time he ended up with six pit stops en route to the worst finish among non-retiring drivers. Oscar Piastri retired in his McLaren debut. All in all, McLaren is a slow car that is no longer projected to compete in the middle of the grid.
3. Mercedes is indistinguishable from last season
Hamilton tried to give Carlos Sainz a run at fourth, but he ultimately could not catch an unimpressive Ferrari. Russell fared even worse, getting passed by Stroll for sixth and never truly threatening to get the place back. Mercedes at the moment is not close to contending with Red Bull, or Ferrari for that matter, and also seems slower than its own customer in Aston Martin.
4. Williams may finally be on the upswing
Both Alex Albon and Logan Sargeant did very well, with Albon earning points and Sargeant placing 12th in his first race. Sargeant had the best debut among the rookies, and the Williams car looked every bit as competitive as other midfield cars like Alpine and Alfa Romeo.
5. Alpine’s contract misfortune may be working out
Alpine’s drama with Piastri last year was a big point of contention, and the team was not shy about its displeasure with Piastri departing for McLaren. Well, Alpine instead “settled” for Pierre Gasly, who made a run from dead last in qualifying up to ninth place to earn points, making him the highest riser on the grid. Piastri, meanwhile, did not even get halfway through the race before retiring.
Saudi Arabia Grand Prix Odds & Preview
Check out outright Saudi Arabian Grand Prix outright odds from BetMGM:
The Jeddah Corniche Circuit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, is a long and narrow “out and back” circuit of sorts, with a hairpin turn at each end. Last season, Red Bull and Ferrari took the front two rows in qualifying — Perez on pole, followed by Leclerc, Sainz and Verstappen. The race went the same way, only with Verstappen and Perez swapping places, the former narrowly holding off Leclerc to win by half a second.
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Of course, that was at a time when Ferrari and Red Bull were neck and neck — the season did not end that way, nor does it appear likely to happen this year. Again, Red Bull is so far in front of every other team that Verstappen to win and Perez to podium is the safest route to go. Parlaying those two on BetMGM is +125 — far better than the -200 apiece to bet them separately and the -140 to bet both Red Bulls to finish top 3.
Esteban Ocon is interesting as a top-6 or top-10 bet, as he is coming off one of the worst races of his career and goes to a track where he had some success last season. Ocon qualified fifth in Jeddah, ahead of then-teammate Alonso, and he then went on to place sixth. After a penalty-filled race in Bahrain, Ocon should be motivated to replicate his 2022 Saudi Arabia run.
Speaking of Alonso, he is getting a lot of love across the board. After securing a podium for Aston Martin in 2023’s inaugural race, he is up to fourth in the odds to win in Jeddah and is +125 to podium. Leclerc is ahead of Alonso in both categories since Leclerc was in third prior to his engine failing. But it seems for now that Aston Martin has a faster car than Ferrari, as Alonso did not need much effort to pass Sainz and was starting to make a move at catching Leclerc before the latter retired. A top-3 for Alonso is worth a sprinkle.
The bigger play could be Stroll. He placed top 6 in Bahrain with broken wrists, and the Aston Martin cars are clearly better than midfield caliber. If healthy, there is plenty of reason to think Stroll can even improve on that top-6 performance. There are no top-6 odds yet, but assuming they are not ridiculous, Stroll and Ocon are both solid plays there.
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Best Bet: Max Verstappen Win + Sergio Perez Top 3 (+125)
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Value Bets: Fernando Alonso Top 3 (+125); Esteban Ocon Top 6/Top 10; Lance Stroll Top 6
