The Greatest Spectacle in Racing has almost arrived. The 107th Indianapolis 500 will run on Sunday, May 28 at 12:45 p.m. ET. Alex Palou qualified his No. 10 Honda on the pole for Chip Ganassi Racing, but Scott Dixon stands out as a sharp IndyCar bet for this year’s Indianapolis 500. He factors heavily into my Indianapolis 500 predictions below, especially on the outright markets, which we can boost by +250 at DraftKings!
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IndyCar Predictions for the Indianapolis 500: Race Preview
What Data Points Should We Use Here?
The Indianapolis 500 is a unique event to handicap. We have nine practice sessions worth of data at our fingertips to use, and historically, these data points have proven incredibly valuable. Don’t believe me? Let’s run through the last four years’ worth of data.
Last year, each of the top four finishers ranked inside the top 10 in final practice. Alex Palou, who looked like he would win last year, underperformed in final practice but ranked first in the penultimate practice session. In 2021, Helio Castroneves won the event after finishing with the best time in Q7. In 2020, Takuma Sato ranked fourth in final practice and won the event; runner-up Scott Dixon also ranked second in final practice. Lastly, in 2019, Simon Pagenaud won after ranking first in the penultimate practice session.
So in short, we’re looking for either (a) a driver who ranked top-10 in final practice or (b) a driver who outran the field in one of the final three practice sessions. However, practice sessions aren’t the only data point we have that’s proven useful — we also have the results from Texas Motor Speedway, another oval circuit.
Texas’ results aren’t perfectly predictive, but they’re useful when read alongside practice data. Last year, Team Penske dominated at Texas before struggling all month in Indianapolis. However, the highest-finishing non-Penske driver, Marcus Ericsson, ended up winning at Indianapolis. His Chip Ganassi Racing teammates, Dixon and Palou, finished fifth and seventh in Texas and had tons of speed a few weeks later in this event.
Who Performed Well in Practice & at Texas This Year?
The practice and Texas numbers point to a handful of quick conclusions. Most importantly, Chip Ganassi Racing is just as fast as last year. Takuma Sato and Scott Dixon topped final practice, and Alex Palou wasn’t far behind in fourth. Dixon, Sato, and Palou also ranked second through fourth in the penultimate practice session. Marcus Ericsson paced the field in the third-to-last session, followed by Palou and Sato. Dixon ranked sixth in that session. Ganassi was also fast at Texas; Palou scored a podium, while Dixon and Ericsson finished fifth and eighth, respectively.
But while Ganassi looks quick, Team Penske doesn’t look quite as impotent as last season. The defending IndyCar champions again won at Texas with Josef Newgarden, although they didn’t score a one-two finish like they did last year. Will Power ranked third in final practice, breaking up the Ganassi cars. He ranked first in the penultimate practice session as well. That said, neither Newgarden nor Scott McLaughlin, Power’s Penske teammates, made much noise in practice.
Outside of Ganassi and Penske, a few names stick out. Benjamin Pedersen and Santino Ferrucci showed a surprising amount of speed for A.J. Foyt Enterprises and broke up the Ganassi cars in the third-to-last practice session. Kyle Kirkwood, Colton Herta and Romain Grosjean showed some speed in final practice for Andretti Autosport that we hadn’t seen much of all month. Arrow McLaren didn’t show dominant speed in practice, but that didn’t stop Felix Rosenqvist or Pato O’Ward from securing top-5 starting spots.
IndyCar Predictions for the Indianapolis 500: Best Bets
Can Scott Dixon Break the Curse?
It looked like Scott Dixon was on his way to his second Indianapolis 500 victory last season before a pit-road blunder cost him a shot. That made it two years in a row where Dixon started on the pole but couldn’t even score a podium, let alone a top-10 result. Dixon will start sixth this year, but I’m optimistic about his odds of winning Sunday’s event.
Chip Ganassi Racing looks to have an edge in the speed department again this season, and each of their drivers has looked exceptionally fast in practice. Dixon owns the distinction of pacing the bunch in the penultimate practice session. He’ll start behind the favorite, pole-winner Alex Palou, but ahead of both Takuma Sato and Marcus Ericsson.
This year marks Dixon’s 21st appearance in the Indianapolis 500. He owns one win, five podiums, and seven top-5 results through that span. Since he joined Ganassi in 2006, Dixon hasn’t gone three years without at least a top-5 finish in this event. I like Dixon on all of the positional betting markets and recommend splitting a decent chunk of change on them as a ladder play. You can even add an extra +250 to any Indianapolis 500 outright at DraftKings Sportsbook!
Best IndyCar Bet: Scott Dixon 8-1 (21-2 Boosted!) for 0.25 Units at DraftKings
Best IndyCar Bet: Scott Dixon Top-5 for 0.5 Unit at DraftKings
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Can Will Power Outrun His Teammates?
I’m limiting my exposure to just one outright for this year’s event. So instead of piecing together an elaborate outright card, I’m putting a full unit on a matchup market. FanDuel Sportsbook has pit Will Power and Josef Newgarden, two Penske teammates, against one another on the head-to-head markets. Power, who starts 12th, is the underdog to Newgarden, who starts 17th.
Power actually showed speed in practice that Newgarden did not. He outran the Ganassi Hondas in the penultimate session on his way to the fastest lap. In contrast, Newgarden ended the session ranked a dreadful 24th. Newgarden improved to ninth in final practice, but Power still ranked well above him in third. While it’s true that Power last outran Newgarden here in 2018, he has adopted a much more conservative driving style over the last two years, and he shouldn’t take any potentially race-ending risks.
The practice data suggests Power should be favored over Newgarden. But FanDuel is favoring Newgarden here by a healthy margin, likely because they’re weighing the recent results at Texas and Indianapolis more than practice data. We can get Power to beat Newgarden at odds of -102 (50.5%), which is a shockingly great deal for how safe of an Indianapolis 500 prediction this seems to be given both drivers’ performance in practice.
Best IndyCar Bet: Will Power vs. Josef Newgarden -102 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
