Spring Training is underway, so this week is a good time to check in with 2023 MLB award odds and see how things are falling. Today we will cover American League MVP odds, currently headlined by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Let’s take a peek at how the rest of the AL MVP odds shake out.
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2023 American League MVP Odds: Trout & Ohtani Edging Judge
Per DraftKings:
Angels occupying the top 2 spots in DraftKings’ odds is not necessarily surprising given Trout’s and Ohtani’s statures, but it goes to show how little team success matters in MLB MVP projections. The Angels are currently +5000 to make the playoffs in 2023 and have an over/under of 81.5 wins, a number they have not hit since 2015. But one of Ohtani and Trout has finished top 5 in MVP voting every year since 2011 (Trout is doing most of the heavy lifting there), and Ohtani earned a couple first-place votes in 2022, so these two have to be among the favorites.
Aaron Judge has slipped to +450 after one of the most dominant offensive seasons in recent memory. There has not been a repeat MVP in the American League since Miguel Cabrera did so in 2012 and 2013, so Judge falling behind Ohtani and Trout may be factoring in potential voter and/or Yankees fatigue — despite that being Judge’s first MVP and Trout and Ohtani each being past winners. That said, Ohtani and Trout could split the Angels vote if Los Angeles has any team success, while Judge is far and away the best candidate on the Yankees to win MVP.
Julio Rodriguez is interesting at +700 and coming off a tremendous rookie season, but there is always concern for a sophomore slump. The same goes for longshot Adley Rutschman. Instead, the most value looks to be in the 5 to 8 range, with sluggers Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jose Ramirez and Rafael Devers all between +1100 and +2000. Alvarez is the best hitter on the World Series favorite, so there is plenty of upside there. But Guerrero also has some underrated value coming off a 2022 in which he was good but not nearly up to the standard he set in 2021. A bounce back comparable to that season, one in which he finished second in MVP, would put him squarely in the discussion.
Down the board is filled mostly with stay-aways, though Rutschman could be worth a small wager as a flier from a fun, young Orioles team. Rodriguez has more upside as a gamble on a second-year leap, but Rutschman’s odds are more palatable for those fading the proverbial sophomore slump.
Another longshot with some legs is Byron Buxton at +3000, if for no other reason than his power/defense combo. Do not expect much return on investment — Buxton has played 100 games once in his eight-year career, and that was back in 2017. That said, despite playing just 61 and 92 games in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Buxton finished with 4.5 and 4.0 WAR (Baseball Reference). That 4.5 in 61 games paced him for arguably runaway MVP numbers over a full season, and he is pretty indisputably the best defensive center fielder in the game. And though Buxton hits for low average and does not get on base nearly enough, he is a safe bet for .830-plus OPS with upside to push well over .900. If he stays healthy for a full season (a big if), Buxton will be in the running.
