The Atlanta Braves will take on the Los Angeles Angels at home tonight. The Angels won the first meeting between these teams on Monday and will look to roll that momentum forward — but they’ll also run into an NL Cy Young frontrunner in RHP Spencer Strider. Let’s dig into today’s Angels-Braves odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Angels-Braves MLB Betting Pick & Prediction: Shohei Ohtani vs. Spencer Strider
Angels-Braves Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Angels: +200 | Braves: -250
Angels +1.5: +100 | Braves -1.5: -120
Over 9: -115 | Under 9: -105
The Braves are a sizeable favorite for the second game of this series, likely due to who they’ll feature on the mound. RHP Spencer Strider will take the hill for the Braves tonight, and while his 3.73 ERA may not lead Atlanta’s starting rotation, his impressive 3.10 xERA does. Strider has gotten unlucky this year, especially with the long ball — he has surrendered 18 actual home runs on just 12.9 expected home runs. The Angels will trot out LHP Patrick Sandoval, whose 4.13 ERA and 4.25 xERA don’t inspire much confidence relative to Strider.
I give the Braves an edge both on the mound and in the batter’s box. Atlanta’s offense leads the MLB in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .361 — that’s .014 more than the next-best Dodgers, who don’t even have a 0.14-point gap over the fifth-best Angels. Atlanta’s offense has gotten serious fireworks from Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr. While the Angels have plenty of offensive weapons themselves, especially Shohei Ohtani, they need everyone else to step up until Mike Trout returns. The acquisition of C.J. Cron at the trade deadline should help, but Atlanta’s offense is just that much better than the field.
Sometimes the best bets are profoundly boring. I have been riding Shohei Ohtani’s total bases lately, and it’s been working — he has tallied multiple bases in four of his last five games despite drawing five walks, most of them intentional. Yesterday’s game against the Braves was no exception — Ohtani hit a pair of singles and almost got a home run but for an impressive defensive effort from outfielder Michael Harris II. Unfortunately for Atlanta, defensive plays like that aren’t something you can count on.
The splits point to a ton of value here as well. First, Ohtani has also owned RHPs like Strider this year. He is hitting .325 against them with 93 hits, 49 extra-base hits and 30 home runs so far this season. Second, Strider has been worse at home. His 3.73 ERA balloons to 4.45 in Truist Park, and he’ll have to deal with wind blowing out through right-center field, which benefits LHBs like Ohtani. While it feels foolish to bet against Strider, it’s probably more foolish not to back Ohtani at odds of +110 (47.6%) via BetMGM to record multiple bases.
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Best Angels-Braves MLB Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at BetMGM
