The Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros will square off in a crucial AL West battle on FS1. After a hot start, the Angels have slowed down and are now three games behind the ‘Stros for second place. Both teams trail the Texas Rangers. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Thursday night’s Angels-Astros game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re backing the road team to keep this one close.
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Best MLB Angels-Astros Bet & Prediction: L.A. Keeps it Close
Angels-Astros Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Angels: +145 | Astros: -195
Over 8.5: -105 | Under 8.5: -115
The Astros will have the advantage on the mound. The Angels are starting LHP Reid Detmers (0-4), whose 4.93 ERA and 4.45 xERA are middling. The Astros will start LHP Framber Valdez (5-4), who owns an impressive 2.38 ERA and 4.01 xERA. Although Valdez’s start to the season is likely unsustainable, those numbers suggest he has still been in better form than Detmers, albeit not by a particularly significant margin.
The Angels will have the advantage at the plate. They rank sixth in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .334, and eighth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .329. The Astros rank a dismal 22nd in wOBA at .310 and 21st in xwOBA at .318. The Angels also fare better against left-handed pitchers like Valdez, as their overall OPS of .759 improves to .801 against them. The Astros’ overall OPS of .706 ticks up to .728 against lefties as well.
The home-away splits also point to some solid value on L.A. tonight. The Angels have gone a respectable 15-14 on the road. They are also 17-12 on the run line on the road, which improves to 13-6 when they play as a road underdog. Houston is a solid 15-13 at home this year, but the Astros have gone only 12-16 on the run line at home, which worsens to 10-15 when they play as a home favorite.
Let’s trust the Angels to keep this within a run. We can find the run line priced at odds of -130 via DraftKings Sportsbook, which implies a 56.5% chance the Angels keep it within one. That’s worse than their current cover rate on the road (58.6%) and as a road underdog (68.4%). With the books likely higher on Valdez than they should be, the Angels offer a decent amount of value at their current price.
Best Angels-Astros MLB Bet: Angels +1.5 -130 at DraftKings
