It took eleven innings, but the Los Angeles Angels finally prevailed over the Seattle Mariners on Monday night. The two teams will run it back on Tuesday night in Game 2 of the series. These teams are going in opposite directions heading into the final stretch of the 2023 season, but there’s still plenty to look out for, including one +EV betting spot. Let’s take a look at the Angels-Mariners odds and use the OddsShopper model to make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet.
Best MLB Angels-Mariners Bet & Prediction: First Inning Runs
Angels-Mariners Odds, via BetRivers
Angels: +175 | Mariners: -210
Angels +1.5: -130 | Mariners -1.5: +107
Over 8: -105 | Under 8: -117
The Los Angeles Angels didn’t expect to be playing for next year when they added a raft of talent at the trade deadline. With Shohei Ohtani in a contract year and Mike Trout getting older and older, the Angels went for the jugular with a last ditch effort to make the playoffs. Unfrotunately, things didn’t work out, and to add injury to insult, Ohtani and Trout are now on the shelf for the rest of the season.
The Angels are out of the race, but they’re still fighting. Reid Detmers had a strong outing last night to keep the Mariners bats under control and allow the offense to get the game into extra innings. They nearly had the game locked up in the tenth, before Julio Rodriguez hit a two run homer to tie the game. They kept fighting, scoring three in the top of the eleventh and held on to win.
Patrick Sandoval takes the hill for the Angels tonight. The lefty has been solid in 2023, but his overall numbers have dropped off a bit from earlier in his career. Sandoval has a 4.31 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. He’s struck out 115 batters in 131.2 IP, walking 66 batters in the process. To put those stats in perspective, Sandoval 2.91 ERA in 2022 and whiffed over a batter per nine innings pitched. He had an admirable 3.42 ERA and similar strikeout rate in 2021, as well.
The Mariners will match Sandoval with rookie SP Bryan Woo. Like Sandoval, Woo has been solid but not spectacular this year. He has a 4.50 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 70 IP in his rookie campaign. His control has been solid, walking just 22 batters, which combined with his hits allowed is good for a 1.21 WHIP.
There are two solid starters in this game, but the “Yes, run first inning” odds mispriced at BetRivers, leaving a solid edge for bettors. This Angels-Mariners bet can be had at +105. It has true odds of -103 given its 51% win rate. Those numbers give it a 4% positive expected value. It’s worth betting just under 1.5% of your bank roll if you’re using the full Kelly Criterion for proper staking.
Best Angels-Mariners MLB Bet: Over 0.5 Runs (YRFI) +105 at BetRivers
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