Monday night presents us with an exciting matchup on FS1: the Los Angeles Angels will take on the San Diego Padres starting at 9:40 p.m. The Angels will start RHP Jaime Barria, while the Padres are currently expected to start LHP Blake Snell. We’ve already recommended getting action on a player prop for this game, but let’s dive into tonight’s Angels-Padres odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
Looking for winning MLB bets posted daily? OddsShopper has you covered! Check out our MLB articles and our MLB bet shopping pages that use our industry-leading betting model to find plays with positive expected value (+EV) each day. We even have a Parlay Builder! If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Angels-Padres Betting Pick & Prediction: Total Stands Out Tonight
Angels-Padres Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Angels: +152 | Padres: -180
Over 8: -110 | Under 8: -110
The official pitcher for the San Diego Padres is yet to be announced, but some media outlets project LHP Blake Snell will start, and the odds reflect this expected reality. The Padres are sizeable home favorites as they’ll likely have an edge on the mound — Snell boasts a 3.21 ERA and 4.06 xERA, slightly better numbers than his L.A. counterpart, RHP Jaime Barria, who owns a 2.92 ERA and a 4.41 xERA. Still, both pitchers have fared unsustainably well.
The data reveals that the Angels should have a big leg up on offense. L.A. ranks fifth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .337, largely due to the efforts of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. San Diego, despite its bloated payroll, only ranks 13th in xwOBA at .324. Worse, that number clocks in well below the team’s actual wOBA of .315, which is tied for 17th. The Padres should get things going eventually, but it feels like we’ve been saying that for years at this point.
A handful of splits and betting trends point to value on the total for this one. The Angels fare slightly better offensively on the road than at home, as their .790 road OPS is .032 better than their home OPS. Likewise, the Padres fare better offensively at home than on the road, as their .734 home OPS is .029 better than their road OPS. Although the Padres are 48-32-4 to the under this year, they are only 11-11-4 to the under when the total clocks in at 8 or lower.
Ultimately, one final betting trend pushes me firmly into the over camp: the Angels are a whopping 13-6-2 to the over with a total of 8 or below. With some uncertainty surrounding Snell tonight, there’s the possibility that the Padres send out a worse pitcher, causing this total to tick up before the game even gets underway. VSiN reports that 82% of the cash is on the over on only 73% of the tickets, so let’s trust the sharps and buy the over 8 at -110 (52.4%) via FanDuel.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Angels-Padres MLB Pick: Over 8 -110 at FanDuel
