The Los Angeles Angels are on the road against the Texas Rangers tonight for a surprisingly meaningful AL West battle on FS1. The Houston Astros may no longer have a stranglehold on this division. Let’s break down the betting odds for Thursday night’s Angels-Rangers game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet — we’re diving into the NRFI/YRFI odds for this one.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Angels-Rangers Betting Pick & Prediction: Pitcher’s Duel in Texas
Angels-Rangers Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Angels: +116 | Rangers: -134
Over 8: -120 | Under 8: -102
NRFI: -111 | YRFI: -115
The Rangers won the third game of this series last night after dropping the first two. They can tie things up with a win here, but they’ll have to contend with RHP Shohei Ohtani (5-2), whose 3.32 ERA and 3.35 xERA are both elite. The Rangers will start RHP Nathan Eovaldi (9-2), whose 2.49 ERA and 2.95 xERA are similarly elite. Eovaldi and Ohtani are the fourth and sixth-best pitchers in the entire American League, per FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score.
Although both teams have excellent starters on the mound tonight, they’ll have to contend with solid offensive play. These teams have combined to plate 15, 10, and 9 runs this series, good for an average of 11.3 per game. Texas ranks third in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .339; L.A. ranks sixth at .336. Texas is currently outperforming expectations with a weighted on-base average, or wOBA, of .344, but L.A. is lagging behind them with a wOBA of .331.
We’re playing with fire for our best bet tonight, but I’m a fan of fading both offenses here against elite pitching. Sure, Corey Seager’s home run yesterday cashed a +420 ticket for us — who cares? It’s a new day. Let’s hone in on the no runs first inning (NRFI) markets. Despite both squads’ offensive accolades, both also rank above the league average in NRFI%. Texas has failed to score a first-inning run 71.6% of the time; L.A. has failed to do so 72.9% of the time. Some quick multiplication gives us a combined NRFI rate of 52.2%.
Despite producing so many runs per game this series, the Rangers and Angels have gone scoreless in the first twice. We can buy them to do so again at odds of -111 (52.6%) at FanDuel Sportsbook, just slightly worse than the raw hit rate, but you’ll find it at -115 (53.5%) at Pinnacle and -125 (55.6%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s take advantage of this price before it disappears. New to FanDuel? Get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500 when you register via this link.
Best Angels-Rangers MLB Pick: NRFI -111 at FanDuel
