The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels combined for 25 runs in Saturday’s game, with the Angels prevailing 13-12 in extra innings. They’ll be back at it tomorrow for the rubber match of this three game set. Despite the high scoring on Saturday, this game has efficiently priced run total betting markets. However, there’s still value on the derivative totals for Sunday’s nationally televised game. Let’s dig into Sunday Night Baseball to make the best Astros-Angels prediction and MLB bet.
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Best MLB Astros-Angels Betting Pick & Prediction: Value on Derivative Total
Astros-Angels Odds
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Astros: -130 | Angels: +110
Astros -1.5: +110 | Angels +1.5: -135
Over 10: -110 | Under 10: -110
Baseball fans might be surprised to see a ten run total in a game that Cristian Javier is pitching. The Astros hurler has been one of the team’s top arms over the last several seasons. He was off to a solid 2023 until recently. Javier has had three straight rough outings. He was torched by the Texas Rangers for eight runs in his last start. Prior to that outing, he was roughed up by the St. Louis Cardinals for six earned runs and he gave up four runs in two innings to the New York Mets before that. It’s likely that Javier will bounce back to his typical consistency, but the recent form is certainly getting in the minds and models of MLB betting handicappers.
The Angels are singing a similar tune about their starting pitcher. Tyler Anderson has always been an average starter, but his statistics in 2023 leave much to be desired. Anderson has a 5,25 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 1.8 K/BB ratio this season. Those numbers are down significantly from his career averages. He has a 4.29 career ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB. Like Javier, it’s likely that Anderson will turn things around.
In the meantime, this game’s run total is set at ten runs. The number is right where it should be, but you can still find value at BetMGM on the derivative run total markets. The alternate total under 13.5 (-350) has a small 2% edge. It connects roughly 80% of the time and should have true odds of -393. The minor edge for this expected value is worth betting about .4% of your bankroll using Kelly Criterion staking. That may seem like a fraction, but it will lead to positive expected value and some sweat equity for Sunday night’s action.
Best Astros-Angels MLB Pick: Under 13.5 Runs (-350) at BetMGM
