The Oakland Athletics have won two games in a row, which is an impressive feat for a team that has just 27 wins on the year. They host the Houston Astros on Thursday night for the first of a three-game set. The Astros’ 53 wins are likely to be more than Oakland gets to this whole season, and they are heavily favored to take care of business. Game 1 of the series has a run total of 8.5, with the Astros at nearly a 5.5 implied team total. Let’s look deeper at this one to find the best Astros-Athletics MLB bet using OddsShopper’s Premium Tool.
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Best MLB Astros-Athletics Bet & Prediction: Corey Julks
MLB Bets: Astros-Athletics Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Houston Astros: -220 | Oakland Athletics: +184
Houston -1.5 -128 | Oakland +1.5 +106
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -105
The Houston Astros have been one of the most consistent teams in baseball over the last several seasons. We all know about the cheating scandal, but it’s hard to deny that the franchise has found success one way or another. However, Houston’s dominance in the AL West is in jeopardy this season after the emergence of the Texas Rangers. The Astros are 4.5 games behind Texas for the division lead. The two teams will meet over the weekend for a big second half series.
Before that big divisional series, the Astros have the fortune of playing the Oakland Athletics. The A’s just won two games in a row to put their record at 27-71. The only race they are in is to stay out of the complete cellar, as the Kansas City Royals are also vying for lowest win total in the league with 28. Oakland’s plans are to move to Las Vegas next year, which is hopefully giving it hope for better things to come.
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While the Athletics struggle in all areas of the game, Hogan Harris will take the mound, and he has been particularly bad. Harris has appeared in 10 games, with four coming as a starter. He has posted a 6.51 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and a negative WAR. There’s not much to like about him going against one of the best teams in baseball tonight.
The Coliseum may be one of the tougher ballparks to hit one out of, but the Astros should still get ample opportunity to tee off on Harris and a weak Oakland bullpen. Corey Julks should be in the batting order against the left-handed Harris, and his home run MLB prop bet pricing has a lot of value. Julks hasn’t gone yard since June 18, but the +800 odds are too strong to pass up in this matchup. Anyone on Houston is viable for a home run in Oakland.
FanDuel has the odds for this Astros-Athletics bet mispriced. The true odds should be +700 given the 13% win probability. It has a whopping 13% positive expected value, but since the bet only connects 13% of the time, you won’t want to break the bank staking this one. Wagering about 0.6% of your bankroll using Kelly Criterion bet sizing is just right for sustainable growth. Keep an eye out for the Houston lineup to be sure Julks is in there, and the higher he’s hitting the better. FanDuel’s house rules won’t void the bet if for someone reason Julks sits this one out.
Best Astros-Athletics MLB Bet: Corey Julks to Hit a Home Run (+800) at FanDuel
