The 2023 baseball season is coming to a close, but the AL and NL Wild Card races are still red hot. The Houston Astros find themselves clinging to a 0.5 game lead over the Seattle Mariners for the AL’s final spot. The Astros and Mariners are playing the rubber match of a three-game series on Wednesday night with huge implications. Let’s dive into Wednesday night’s Astros-Mariners odds using the OddsShopper model to make a pick and find the best MLB bet.
Best MLB Astros-Mariners Bet & Prediction: Jose Abreu
Astros-Mariners Odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook
Astros: -120 | Mariners: +102
Astros -1.5: +140 | Mariners +1.5: -170
Over 7.5: -122 | Under 7.5: +100
The Houston Astros came into Seattle and won Game 1 of this series behind a stellar outing from Justin Verlander. Cristian Javier couldn’t match that performance in Game 2, lasting just 4.2 innings and giving up three earned runs. Framber Valdez will look to right the ship when he takes the hill for Wednesday’s rubber match. Valdez has been one of Houston’s most consistent starters over the last few seasons, bringing a veteran presence to this crucial late season matchup.
Valdez will be matched by Seattle rookie SP Bryce Miller. It’s a huge spot for the first-year pro, but he’s shown an ability to get the job done all season. Miller hasn’t lit it up, but he’s been a solid starter since 2023’s first half. He has a 4.17 ERA in 24 starts, with 115 strikeouts across 127 IP. Miller has only walked 25 batters, giving him a 4.6 K/BB ratio. However, despite these solid numbers, it remains to be seen if Miller will rise to the occasion for the biggest game of his career on Wednesday.
The Mariners are a half game behind the Astros in the AL Wild Card standings, so it’s reasonable to back the veterans in this game. These teams are no strangers either. Houston knocked the Mariners out of last year’s playoff in the AL Divisional series, ending their Cinderella story. The playoffs have basically started already for these two as they meet again with the postseason on the line.
One approach for MLB bets would be checking out value on Valdez and Miller. Both are solid starting pitchers, but they should be on short leashes, and any sign that their stuff is fading and the managers are likely to go to the bullpen. On the other hand, there’s plenty of veteran bats in these games that have been in these spots before and can get the job done. Houston’s lineup is stacked with experience pros. Several Mariners batters got experience in last season’s playoff runs, but they are a bit greener and have less experience than the Astros offense.
OddsShopper’s model is identify value on several hitters, especially Jose Abreu. You can grab Abreu to hit a home run at +750 on FanDuel for a solid ROI. This Astros-Mariners bet has true odds of +695 and a 7% positive expected value. The bet wins 13% of the time, so you won’t want to break the bank on bet sizing. This one is worth staking just under .3% of your bankroll if you’re using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
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Best Astros-Mariners MLB Bet: Jose Abreu Over 0.5 Home Runs (+750) at FanDuel
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