Though the Yankees are in last in their division and the Astros second in theirs, these two teams are only separated by six games in the loss column. Both are very much in the Wild Card chase, at a bare minimum. Tonight’s Yankee Stadium matchup does not feature aces, but it does have major implications as we hit the last couple months of the season. With that in mind, we will turn to the OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best bets for this game. Let’s dive into the best Astros-Yankees bets for Thursday.
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Best MLB Astros-Yankees Bet & Prediction: Cristian Javier
Odds via BetRivers
Houston Astros: -110 | New York Yankees: -107
Houston Astros +1.5: +150 | New York Yankees -1.5: -186
Over 9.0: +102 | Under 9.0: -122
There is a lot of volatility on both sides of this matchup. Each lineup has the potential to pop off, especially the lefty power bats, and both pitchers have been extremely up and down this year. Cristian Javier is the more surprising of the two starters, as his World Series heroics seemed to indicate he was headed for greatness. Alas, this year he is posting mediocre numbers across the board, including a three-strikeout drop from his 2022 per-nine rate.
That said, Javier’s vulnerability is largely left-handed power — of which the Yankees do not have much. Only Jake Bauers presents much of a threat in tonight’s projected lineup. That is a small selection of options to take advantage of the Yankee Stadium short porch in right field; the rest of the lineup will have to deal with Javier’s 30.1% strikeout rate against righties. He is also allowing an OPS 270 points lower to right-handed bats compared to lefties.
It cannot be ignored that Javier has had his fair share of blowups. As a result of a few such games over the past month, BetRivers has set his outs recorded line at a middling 15.5. But that means Javier merely needs to get one out in the sixth to hit the over, which he has done in 12 of 20 starts this year (60%). The Yankees lineup may seem a bit imposing at a glance, but Javier has the stuff to navigate it and avoid an early exit.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Javier below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Javier over 15.5 pitching outs at -105, so this bet is beating the market at +100. It is also getting a solid 3% and greater than a 50% chance of hitting, leading to a recommended bet size of $9. As such, Javier over 15.5 pitching outs gets the top value spot for Thursday’s Astros-Yankees game.
Best Astros-Yankees MLB Bet: Cristian Javier Over 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100, BetRivers)
