The Toronto Blue Jays continue their West Coast swing when they kick off a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night. Dodger Stadium is one of the tougher parks to hit the ball out of, but there is still some value on a couple Blue Jays-Dodgers bets for players to hit home runs. We’ve already covered one MLB bet sticking out in OddsShopper’s Premium Model, now let’s take a look at another Blue Jays-Dodgers bet for Monday’s game.
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Best MLB Blue Jays-Dodgers Bet & Prediction: Daulton Varsho
Blue Jays-Dodgers Odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays: +102 | Los Angeles Dodgers: -120
Blue Jays -1.5: +160 | Dodgers +1.5: -194
Over 9.5: +100 | Under 9.5: -122
Daulton Varsho was an up-and-coming name in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization last year. In his first full major league season, Varsho smacked 27 home runs and contributed 16 stolen bases. He was a solid prospect for many years as a catcher and displayed solid athleticism on the basepaths and in being able to transition to another position.
But the Diamondbacks might have seen something they didn’t like in Varsho when they shipped him off to the Toronto Blue Jays for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. So far, the organization’s decision has been prescient. Varsho’s numbers are down across the board in 2023, and he has been part of a middling Blue Jays offense. He has 12 home runs and 12 steals but is hitting just .212 with a .276 on-base percentage. Varsho’s OPS is .628, and he has an overall WAR of 1.9. On the other hand, Moreno and Gurriel have been steady pieces of a playoff-caliber Diamondbacks club.
That’s a lot of negativity around Varsho. However, he gets a solid matchup tonight against the Dodgers’ Michael Grove. It’s never easy to hit one out of Dodger Stadium, but there is still plenty of power in this park, especially against the Dodgers’ weakest rotation arm. Most importantly, Varsho’s home run MLB prop bet is just mispriced at FanDuel. You can buy Varsho to hit a home run at +540, but if the rest of the market is any indication, this bet should have true odds of +505. It hits about 17% of the time in this spot. The bet has a 6% positive expected value and is worth risking .4% of your bank roll using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable bank roll growth.
Best Blue Jays-Dodgers MLB Bet: Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 Home Runs (+540) at FanDuel
