The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Toronto Blue Jays for the second game of their three-game series tonight. The Blue Jays took the first in extras thanks to a go-ahead double from Daulton Varsho, so they’ll look to roll that strong showing into this evening. You can tune in live via ESPN+ Let’s dig into today’s Blue Jays-Dodgers odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Blue Jays-Dodgers Betting Pick & Prediction: Back the L.A. Offense Today
Blue Jays-Dodgers Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Blue Jays: +115 | Dodgers: -135
Blue Jays +1.5: -175 | Dodgers -1.5: +145
Over 9: -105 | Under 9: -115
We’ve got a pair of pitchers in which I’m somewhat skeptical tonight in RHP Chris Bassitt and LHP Julio Urias. Both players have winning records, but they’ve received plenty of run support from their respective offenses. Urias has gotten somewhat unlucky, as his 5.02 ERA is a full run worse than his 4.02 xERA, but Bassitt has gotten lucky, as his 3.92 ERA slots in under his 4.40 xERA. Toronto’s Bassitt has looked especially beatable on the road, where he owns a 5.81 ERA through 11 starts. Urias has excelled at home and owns a 2.15 ERA in Dodger Stadium.
Just as they have an edge on the mound, the Dodgers also have an edge in the batter’s box. L.A. ranks a commanding second in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .348. Toronto ranks sixth at .330. The Atlanta Braves and Dodgers dominated the MLB in the metric since the season began, and both teams still have room to grow — their current wOBAs slot in below their xwOBAs. The Blue Jays have a bit of breathing room as well but not as much. The Dodgers also see their team OPS tick up from .790 to .807 when they play at home.
The betting trends point to some value on the over, and I’m willing to buy it despite some sharp action coming in on the under. The Dodgers are an MLB-best 57-36-6 (61.3%) to the over this season. They are a slightly worse 24-19-3 (55.8%) to the over at home, but that’s still net profitable at standard odds. The Blue Jays haven’t been as effective, as they are 52-43-6 (45.3%) to the under, but they are a breakeven 26-26-2 (50%) on the road. The wind is expected to blow out through right field, helping both teams’ left-handed power hitters. Unsurprisingly, I already have action on a Freddie Freeman player prop.
The books have the total for this one set to 9. You’ll find the under priced at the standard -110 (52.4%) at FanDuel Sportsbook but at -105 (51.2%) via BetMGM. That isn’t a ton of market-based edge, and Pinnacle, a sharp book, even has this one priced at +100 (50%), so let’s look at the derivative markets. FanDuel has the Dodgers’ team total set to 4.5 with the over priced at -125 (55.6%). That same bet will cost you only -110 (52.4%) at BetMGM and -109 (52.2%) at Pinnacle. Let’s lock in the over for the Dodgers’ team total tonight.
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Best Blue Jays-Dodgers MLB Pick: Dodgers Over 4.5 -110 at BetMGM
