Blue Jays-Guardians is an ultimate strength vs. weakness battle, as it features a true ace taking on a lineup that offers little in terms of power or run production. That is leading to the OddsShopper Premium Tool exploding on one individual player’s prop, so let’s not waste any time and dig into the best bet for this matchup. Here are the best Blue Jays-Guardians bets for Wednesday.
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Best MLB Blue Jays-Guardians Bet & Prediction: Kevin Gausman
Odds via BetRivers
Toronto Blue Jays: -159 | Cleveland Guardians: +135
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5: +104 | Cleveland Guardians +1.5: -125
Over 8.0: -113 | Under 8.0: -107
There is not much reason to beat around the bush with the best bet of this game; Kevin Gausman over/under 17.5 pitching outs against one of the least impactful offenses in baseball is an absolute gift. Over 17.5 pitching outs is simply finishing the sixth inning, which Gausman has done in 16 of 22 starts (72.7%). This is one of the small handful of contenders for the AL Cy Young Award, and even though the over on 17.5 has a lot of juice, the sheer likelihood of him getting through six innings is enough to push this EV up to the top.
Speaking to the Guardians offense, it is known for two things: Striking out very rarely and hitting for little power. The first thing may seem to work against Gausman given he is the best strikeout pitcher in the American League, but on the contrary, if he can get outs without fanning Guardians, that should keep his pitch count down. And then there is the matter of Gausman occasionally being susceptible to power; he does not have to worry about that with this Cleveland team. Really the only power threats are Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, and even with their .800-plus OPS’s, the Guardians have the worst ISO in MLB, the fourth-worst slugging and the fifth-worst team OPS.
Everything about this matchup works in favor of Gausman going deep into the game. Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Gausman below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Gausman over 17.5 pitching outs at -193, so even with the huge juice at -175, this bet is beating the market. It is also getting a solid 3% EV and 66% expected win rate, leading to a recommended bet size of $20. As such, Gausman’s pitching outs over earns the top value spot for Wednesday’s Blue Jays-Guardians game.
Best Blue Jays-Guardians MLB Bet: Kevin Gausman Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175, BetRivers)
