Tonight’s loaded MLB slate concludes with an American League matchup between the Blue Jays and Mariners in Seattle. The Mariners desperately need wins given their place in the standings, and Toronto is watching the Orioles and Rays duke it out for the division ahead of them. With both teams in key spots tonight, we are going to hit up OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best Blue Jays-Mariners bets for Friday, targeting one of the teams’ sluggers.
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Best MLB Blue Jays-Mariners Bet & Prediction: Matt Chapman
MLB Free Picks: Blue Jays-Mariners Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays: +102| Seattle Mariners: -120
Over 8.0: -110 | Under 8.0: -110
It is not the most comfortable taking a home run prop as the best value bet for a single game, but Chapman to hit a home run is smoking the market right now.
On the surface, it may seem odd that Chapman’s home run prop is doing so well in OddsShopper’s model; after all, Bryce Miller is allowing less than one homer per nine innings, and his home park is a downgrade for Chapman in terms of home run metrics. Also, Chapman has not homered since July 6 and has a sub-.200 ISO for only the second time in his career.
But the ballpark may actually work in Chapman’s favor for this particular matchup. He is actually slugging considerably better away from Rogers Centre, with seven of his 12 home runs coming on the road and his slugging percentage jumping nearly 50 points. His ISO is also over .200 when on the road. What’s more, Miller has surrendered four home runs in Seattle compared to just two as a road pitcher — small sample size alert, but still worth noting.
Finally, Chapman is seeing the ball well in the month of July; it just is not resulting in home runs. His OPS is over .900 this month and his ISO all the way up to .267, so he may be due to finally catch one square. Again, this is a home run prop with an imposing 20% expected win rate, but circumstances are pretty solid for a Chapman home run tonight.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Chapman below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for a Chapman home run at +406, so this under is hammering the market at +450. This is also getting a 20% expected win rate, which is pretty strong for a home run play, and the 9% EV on OddsShopper is elite. That is leading to a recommended bet size of $7 and gives Chapman’s home run prop the top value spot for Friday night’s Blue Jays-Mariners game.
Best Blue Jays-Mariners MLB Bet: Matt Chapman to Hit a Home Run (+450, FanDuel)
