The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres entered the 2023 season as favorites to make the postseason. The Braves have lived up to the hype in the early going. They’ve put up a 12-4 record over the first three week’s of the season and are holding on to first in the NL East. The start to the season has been a bit more mellow in San Diego. They stand at 8-9 on the year following a 1-0 shutout loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday. Despite the opposite starts for the Braves-Padres, these two teams are creating a lot of excitement for their series which opens on Monday night in San Diego. One Braves-Padres MLB bet is standing out for the game and bettors should jump on it before the market moves.
OddsShopper’s model tracks the sharpest sportsbooks on the betting market to find the best MLB bets on a daily basis. The tool updates as lines move to identify the highest ROI positions at every moment. Checkout an OddsShopper Premium 7-Day trial to test the MLB betting model and also find the best bet in every sport.
Legal Betting Age is 21+ in Most States. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler
Best Braves-Padres MLB Bet: Hit This Run Total While It Lasts
There’s no doubt that the new rules in Major League Baseball have led to more runs being scored in the early part of the season. It remains to be seen how teams will adjust and if the higher scores will last. Nevertheless, markets have certainly caught up and we are seeing higher run totals on a daily basis.
That doesn’t mean games don’t go under and that those run totals can’t get too high. The Padres and Braves are great all around teams that can hit and score, but it appears that the early money coming in on the over 8.5 runs for the Braves-Padres matchup is just too high. BetMGM has the under 8.5 runs priced at -105 which is good for a 3% edge. That bet should win about 53% of the time and is worth laying about 2% of your bankroll in order to grow it using a Kelly based betting method.
Bettors may also be giving too little credit to the starting pitchers in the Braves-Padres matchup. Max Fried is coming off an injury on Opening Day and it’s unclear how many innings he can throw. Ryan Weathers was once a solid prospect and is coming off two strong season opening starts against the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s clear that the market is still not buying in on that success or Fried’s ability to hold down the Padres which is partially why the value is coming in under the total. Expect the market to move later tonight or into tomorrow, so grab this one while it’s still available at a small edge.
Best Braves-Padres MLB Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-105 at BetMGM)
