We’ve officially made it to June! The Milwaukee Brewers will visit the Toronto Blue Jays early on Thursday afternoon in a game the dominant AL East is favored to win. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Thursday’s Brewers-Blue Jays game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re trusting Toronto’s offense to get baserunners across the plate.
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Best MLB Brewers-Blue Jays Bet & Prediction: Play This Team Total
Brewers-Blue Jays Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Brewers: +168 | Blue Jays: -200
Over 8.5: -106 | Under 8.5: -114
The sportsbooks are favoring the Toronto Blue Jays at home here. They’ll start RHP Kevin Gausman (3-3), whose 3.03 ERA and 3.23 xERA are quite impressive for a starting pitcher. The Brewers will start RHP Freddy Peralta (5-4), whose 4.64 ERA and 4.13 xERA are respectable but a lot less impressive. Peralta has gotten knocked around through his last three starts, through which he owns an 8.56 ERA. He has struggled outside of Wisconsin this year and owns a 6.45 road ERA.
In addition to their edge on the mound, the Blue Jays also have one on offense. Toronto ranks sixth in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .330, and fifth in expected on-base average, or xwOBA, at .336. Those numbers suggest their hot offensive start is sustainable. In contrast, the Brewers rank 25th in wOBA at .303 and 26th in xwOBA at .309, which suggests their cold offensive start should continue.
The Brewers have some things going for them in the splits and betting trends department, but not much. Their team OPS of .688 drops to .672 on the road but improves to .713 against right-handed pitching. They also fare better in day games with an OPS of .716. The Blue Jays’ team OPS of .755 drops to .732 in Toronto and .737 in day games but ticks up to .767 when they face right-handed pitching. Toronto is also a dismal 7-12 on the run line as a home favorite; Milwaukee is an acceptable 10-7 on the run line as a road underdog.
Let’s trust Toronto’s offense to at least put runs on the board to help out Gausman. The Blue Jays are averaging 4.8 runs per game and 4.4 runs per game at home, but there are indications that their offense is starting to reach its potential. The matchup with a struggling Peralta should only help. The Blue Jays are -126 to score at least five runs at Pinnacle, a sharp book, but we can buy them to reach that threshold for only -122 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Brewers-Blue Jays MLB Bet: Blue Jays Over 4.5 -122 at FanDuel
