Thursday brings another split slate, and the national MLB Network game features an NL Central matchup between the Cubs and Cardinals. Neither team has much to play for in terms of this season, but there are still some solid value spots for betting this game, particularly with the starting pitching matchup. Ahead of the latest edition of this divisional rivalry, we are going to hit up OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best Cardinals-Cubs bets for Thursday, targeting one of these two starting pitchers.
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Best MLB Cardinals-Cubs Bet & Prediction: Mercurial Steven Matz
MLB Free Picks: Cardinals-Cubs Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
St. Louis Cardinals: +102| Chicago Cubs: -120
Over 8.5: -118 | Under 8.5: -104
TV: MLB Network (Out of Market)
The Cardinals are starting to find something. It has been a lost season for the most part, as they are still 10 games below .500, but with a five-game win streak, St. Louis is now just 2.5 back of the Cubs. However, tonight is going to be a tough matchup at Wrigley Field, with Chicago sending out All-Star Marcus Stroman and the Cardinals countering with the mercurial Steven Matz.
Matz is a wild card pretty much every time he toes the rubber. His strikeout numbers are solid, and he is thus seeing an over/under of 5.5 strikeouts on FanDuel. And with his 8.6 strikeouts per nine and 21.7% strikeout rate, it is not an outrageous line by any means. But Matz’s ability to stay in games long enough is very much up in the air. He has only recently moved back into the Cardinals rotation, as he spent over a month in the bullpen after getting tagged for six runs in 4.1 innings back in late May. In two starts since his return to starting, Matz went 5.1 and 4.1 innings and fanned nine and four. That said, Matz does not inspire much confidence despite his ability to pop for nine strikeouts in less than six innings.
He has surrendered at least four runs in six of his 12 starts and has not finished the sixth inning once. And given his average of 8.6 strikeouts per nine, he needs to pitch well into the seventh inning to be on pace for six strikeouts. All told, Matz has struck out six or more in five of 12 starts this year, and though the Cubs have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in MLB, their lineup projects to be righty-heavy tonight. Matz’s numbers are much worse against opposite-handed hitters, surrendering a .847 OPS and .376 BABIP, which opens the possibility for an early exit.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Matz below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for under 5.5 Matz strikeouts at -149, so this under is beating the market at -142. This is also getting a strong 60% expected win rate, and though there is some moderate juice, the 2% EV on OddsShopper is still solid and worth a recommended bet size of $10. That gives Matz under 5.5 whiffs the No. 1 value spot for Thursday night’s Cardinals-Cubs game.
Best Cardinals-Cubs MLB Bet: Steven Matz Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)
