As the college baseball regular season approaches its conclusion, meaningful games abound on tonight’s card. The SEC battle between Florida and Vanderbilt stands out, but we’ll turn our attention to a Pac-12 contest on the late slate. Those looking for tonight’s best college baseball bet and prediction should have their attention focused on the USC Trojans and Arizona State Sun Devils.
Best College Baseball Bet & Prediction Today | USC-Arizona State
Arizona State Sun Devils (-105) vs. USC Trojans
The Sun Devils just dropped the first game of this series by a three-run margin, but they made plenty of contact. Arizona State’s 10-hard hit balls all ended in outs. However, the Sun Devils rank 42nd in OPS on the season (.904), far ahead of the 118th-ranked Trojans (.844). Only one of USC’s players with 100 plate attempts is hitting above .300, but five of Arizona State’s are. Expect the Sun Devils to benefit from some positive regression on offense in tonight’s contest.
USC’s Saturday pitcher, Caden Aoki, has looked solid but not exceptional of late. He owns a 2.40 ERA across 10 appearances and eight starts this season but was knocked around for six earned runs in his last start. He owns an ERA of 4.11 through his last three starts, all of which came against teams ranked worse than Arizona State in OPS. Two of Aoki’s opponents in that span, Washington and UCLA, even rank outside the top 100 in the metric.
The Sun Devils don’t have an advantage on the mound; their Saturday starter, Khristian Curtis, owns an atrocious 7.69 ERA this year in 12 starts. However, Curtis’ most recent outings have come against strong offenses in Oregon and Stanford, both of which rank top 50 in OPS. The last time he had a chance against an offense outside the top 100 in the metric, Curtis recorded a respectable 4.39 ERA against Oregon State.
The Trojans are favored for tonight’s contest, likely because of their dominant 24-6 record at home. However, the Trojans have benefited from an easier schedule. They rank 61st in D1 Baseball’s RPI and are only 6-13-1 against top-100 teams in the metric. Arizona State ranks 45th in the RPI. Favoring Arizona State slightly — or at least penciling this game in as a pick’em — is a reasonably safe college baseball prediction.
In short — USC’s offense hasn’t shown enough life for them to rally from behind, so if the Sun Devils can exploit Aoki’s recent struggles and get on the board early, the Trojans are in trouble. Let’s back Arizona State on the moneyline at -105 via DraftKings Sportsbook — the best college baseball bet today. Those yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets by winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best College Baseball Bet: Arizona State Moneyline -105 at DraftKings
