The No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs will take on the unranked Florida State Seminoles on Friday night, and for some reason, the books are treating this game almost like a toss-up. However, the Horned Frogs started their season with wins over ranked opponents in Vanderbilt and Arkansas before losing late to Missouri. Tonight’s action will start at 7:30 p.m. ET, and bettors looking to get in on it should back TCU — the Horned Frogs are the best college baseball bet today.
Best College Baseball Bet Today | Florida State-TCU
Florida State Seminoles vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-120)
The TCU Horned Frogs scored a pair of massive wins last week in Arlington. Knocking off two ranked SEC programs is a massive step forward for TCU, even if they did drop a winnable game to Missouri in extras on Sunday. They scored a whopping 37 runs against weekend pitching, adding another seven against UT Arlington on Wednesday, and should keep rolling against a much less impressive Florida State squad.
The Horned Frogs have a slight edge on the mound. They’ll start Ryan Vanderhei again after he allowed only three earned runs in five innings against the potent Vanderbilt offense. Vanderhei went 5-6 for Kansas last year and recorded an ERA of 6.46 over 78 innings pitched, but he’ll get a chance to play alongside a much stronger offense in Fort Worth.
The Florida State Seminoles will trot out Jackson Baumeister, their Saturday starter from last weekend, who went 1-2 and recorded an ERA of 5.6 over only 27.1 innings pitched last year. However, Baumeister struggled outside of Tallahassee — he went 0-2 on the road and recorded an ERA of 9.58 over 10.1 innings.
TCU has an even bigger edge on offense. The Seminoles racked up 45 runs against unranked opponents in James Madison and Jacksonville to start the year — one more than what the Horned Frogs recorded against much stiffer competition. Worse, 10 (22.2%) of Florida State’s runs have come off the bat of shortstop Jordan Carrion, who is hitting an absurd .625. Carrion hit only .280 last year and .250 on the road. Expect him to regress to the mean tonight.
The TCU Horned Frogs sit at -120 (54.5%) to win tonight’s game. But the Florida State Seminoles haven’t shown enough to warrant such a tight number, and TCU has loads of value at this price. TCU also has value on the runline, but I think the moneyline is the best college baseball bet today at a number so low. Those yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets by winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best College Baseball Bet: TCU Moneyline (-120 for 0.6 Unit) at DraftKings
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