The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will square off on early Wednesday afternoon. The D-backs have gotten out to a surprisingly strong start, while the Phillies are floundering around below .500. Let’s break down the betting odds for Wednesday afternoon’s Diamondbacks-Phillies contest to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet — we’re fading both offenses and trusting both pitchers, including Arizona’s Zac Gallen.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s tools, including our Parlay Builder!
Best Diamondbacks-Phillies Bet & Prediction:
Arizona Diamondbacks-Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas Rangers: -134 | Pittsburgh Pirates: +114
Over 9: -115 | Under 9: -105
RHP Zac Gallen (6-2), Arizona’s ace, will take on the Phillies in what the books project as a close game. Gallen owns an impressive 2.95 ERA, and his solid 3.41 xERA suggests that his strong start is mostly sustainable. The Phillies will start LHP Ranger Suarez (0-1), whose 10.50 ERA is a cause for concern, but it has come in a two-start, six-inning sample. Suarez recorded a 3.65 ERA last season and owns a 3.25 ERA for his career. He should bounce back from his slow start sooner rather than later.
The D-backs should have an edge on offense. Arizona ranks a steady 19th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .317. Philadelphia ranks a lowly 26th in the metric at .307. The Phillies have overperformed expectations with a wOBA of .323 so far this season, but that start isn’t sustainable. Arizona has similarly overachieved with a wOBA of .332, but unlike Philadelphia, regression shouldn’t prove quite as catastrophic. No other teams have a wOBA this much higher than their xwOBA than these two.
Despite their offensive overachievement, neither the Phillies nor the D-backs have been profitable teams for over bettors. The D-backs are a solid 24-21-3 (53.3%) to the over, but that doesn’t leave much margin for a profit. The Phillies are just 20-24-3 (45.5%) to the over and only 9-11-2 (45%) to the over at home. Regression has clearly started to come for Philadelphia’s offense, as the team owns a .694 OPS in May, and only four of their last 12 games have gone over. They couldn’t even get an over in Coors Field. The Phillies are 3-5-2 to the under in their most recent home games as of Tuesday afternoon.
The high-quality pitching on both sides is depressing the total for Wednesday afternoon’s contest, but bettors should jump at the chance to get the under 8 runs at close to even. Gallen is probably a bit overrated, but so are both offenses, and Suarez is even underrated. Let’s lock in the under 8 runs at odds of -105 or better at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you haven’t signed up there yet, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Diamondbacks-Phillies MLB Bet: Under 8 -102 at FanDuel
