The Arizona Diamondbacks have taken the lead in the NL West. Their 37-25 record (as of publication) trails only four teams. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Saturday afternoon’s Diamondbacks-Tigers game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet. We’ll also go over whether it’s a good spot to take advantage of the early win bonus at DraftKings.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Diamondbacks-Tigers Betting Pick & Prediction: Arizona Stays Hot
Diamondbacks-Tigers Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
D-backs: -130 | Tigers: +105
Over 8.5: -115 | Over 8.5: -105
We’ve got a battle of struggling pitchers on Saturday morning. The Detroit Tigers will start LHP Matthew Boyd (3-4), whose 5.57 ERA far eclipses his 4.02 xERA. The Arizona Diamondbacks will start RHP Ryne Nelson (2-3), whose 5.40 ERA slightly eclipses his 5.06 xERA. These numbers suggest that both pitchers have gotten unlucky — but Boyd far more so.
The D-backs should have an edge at the plate. Arizona ranks eighth in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .331, but a miserable 21st in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .316. Detroit ranks an embarrassing 30th in wOBA at .285 but a slightly more respectable 24th in xwOBA at .313. The Tigers wouldn’t be a good offense even if they had breakeven luck.
The betting trends and splits don’t point to a slam-dunk option on either side. Arizona has been a solid road team with the MLB”s fourth-best away record at 17-11. However, they are a much less impressive 7-5 as an away favorite. Detroit has gone 15-14 at home and are 11-12 as home underdogs. The D-backs own a steady OPS of .752 against left-handed pitchers like Boyd; the Tigers own an OPS atrocious of .624 against right-handed pitchers like Nelson.
Ultimately, Arizona’s respectable form against left-handed pitching and far more impressive offensive numbers make them a rightful favorite for Saturday afternoon’s action. Let’s lock them in on the moneyline to take advantage of the early win bonus at DraftKings — they simply have to lead by two runs at any point to make this one a winner. If you’re yet to sign up at DraftKings, you can get $200 in bonus bets after placing any $5 wager!
Best Diamondbacks-Tigers MLB Pick: Arizona Moneyline -130 at DraftKings
