The Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers will square off early on Sunday morning. Arizona has taken the first two games of the series and has a chance to secure the sweep. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Sunday morning’s Diamondbacks-Tigers game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet. We’ll also go over whether it’s a good spot to take advantage of the early win bonus at DraftKings.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Diamondbacks-Tigers Betting Pick & Prediction: Can Detroit Score This Time?
Diamondbacks-Tigers Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
D-backs: -240 | Tigers: +175
Over 8.5: +100 | Under 8.5: -120
The Arizona Diamondbacks are a massive favorite on Sunday for good reason. They’ll start their ace, RHP Zac Gallen (7-2), whose 2.75 ERA is a fair amount better than his 3.88 xERA, but he has looked significantly better than Detroit’s starter, LHP Joey Wentz (1-6). Wentz’s 7.49 ERA and 6.42 xERA are some of the MLB’s worst. Wentz’s rolling game score at FiveThirtyEight is 45.3, worse than Cleveland’s Zach Plesac, who was designated for assignment this week. Gallen nearly leads the MLB in the metric at 61.
Arizona also has a leg up offensively, although it isn’t as much of an advantage as some may think. The D-backs rank a dominant fifth in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .332, but rank only 20th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .316. The Tigers rank last in wOBA at .286 but 23rd in xwOBA at .315. However, the injuries to outfielders Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene and Matt Vierling, who rank fifth, second and fourth in xwOBA on the team, mean that number is inflated relative to the batting order we’ll see on Sunday.
It’s hard to justify buying Detroit here, but the price isn’t good enough to warrant backing Arizona. The odds for Arizona to win at DraftKings come in at a monstrous -240 (70.6%). The implied odds for them to win by multiple runs are -130 (56.5%). Neither of those numbers is particularly attractive. Bettors looking to take advantage of the early win bonus at DraftKings could do so by trusting the D-backs but wouldn’t be making much of a profit.
Instead, I recommend getting light exposure to a game parlay. We’ll pair the Arizona Diamondbacks to win, which they should do easily, with the over for Detroit’s team total, which slots in at a measly 2.5. The Tigers scored six runs in the first game of this series before getting shut out in the second. The Tigers may be averaging an MLB-low 3.57 runs per game, but that ticks up to 4.04 when they play at home. Let’s play this one at DraftKings — if you’re yet to register there, you can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Diamondbacks-Tigers MLB Pick: Detroit Over 2.5/Arizona Moneyline +210 at DraftKings
