The San Francisco Giants and Minnesota Twins will do battle on FS1 this evening. The Twins lead the AL Central by a 3.5-game margin, while the Giants trail the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by a 6-game margin. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for Monday evening’s Giants-Twins action to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet — we’re trusting both offenses to make some noise early.
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Best Giants-Twins Bet & Prediction: Trust Both Offenses Early
San Francisco Giants-Minnesota Twins Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants: +128 | Minnesota Twins: -152
Over 9: -102 | Under 9: -120
Both the Giants and Twins will trot out an undefeated pitcher this evening. The Giants will use RHP John Brebbia (2-0), an opener, before likely pivoting to either LHP Sean Manaea (1-2) or RHP Jakob Junis (2-2). Brebbia opened two games earlier this year. Manaea relieve him in April; the now-injured RHP Ross Stripling (0-2) relieved him two weeks ago. Junis pitched 2.2 innings between those games and is a likely candidate to come out of the bullpen third. The Twins will use a traditional starter, RHP Bailey Ober (3-0). Ober owns an impressive 1.78 ERA, but his 3.63 xERA suggests his solid start isn’t sustainable.
The Giants’ decision to use an opener says more about their lack of good starting options than the quality of their bullpen. San Francisco ranks 20th in bullpen ERA (4.08). Although Brebbia owns an impressive 2.37 xERA, none of the team’s likely bulk relief options score well in the metric, not Beck (4.48), Junis (4.92) or Manaea (7.79). Manaea actually ranks 371st out of 379 eligible pitchers in the metric. As a result, Minnesota should have a meaningful edge on the mound — at least after the first inning.
These teams are evenly matched on offense. The Twins rank an acceptable 14th in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .326, slightly ahead of the 16th-ranked Giants at .319. San Francisco has performed much better when lined up against right-handed pitchers like Ober this year, however — the Giants boast an impressive .759 OPS against righties. The Twins have similarly knocked around righties and own a .733 OPS against them, and with the beleaguered Manaea serving as San Francisco’s top bulk-relief lefty, it’s safe to expect some solid production from their offense as well.
Neither one of these teams has looked incredible on offense, but I’m willing to back them both early against vulnerable pitchers. Minnesota ranks a solid 17th in runs scored in the first five innings per game (2.53), and San Francisco slots in slightly higher in 13th (2.61). The Twins tend to do more damage early at home (3.36), while the Giants tend to do more damage early on the road (2.8). Let’s buy the over 4.5 runs for the first five innings at the reasonable price of -108 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Giants-Twins MLB Bet: F5 Over 4.5 -108 at FanDuel
