Baseball fans are typically treated to a slow Sunday with less baseball action following the weekend series. That’s not the case this Monday as Memorial Day is set with a full schedule of baseball action. And that gets started right away in the afternoon with the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles.
Despite the holiday, MLB bettors aren’t expecting a lot of fireworks in the Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles matchup. But with two young starting pitchers on the mound, maybe they should. Let’s take a look at the OddsShopper model to find the sharpest Guardians-Orioles MLB bet and prediction.
OddsShopper‘s market-based betting model gives users a top down approach to sports betting. It finds the sharpest sportsbooks in every sport and bet type to identify the true odds of a bet winning. The model then compares those odds with the rest of the industry to find the best price. You’ll also find OddsShopper’s expert analysis, and tools like our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Guardians-Orioles Bet & Prediction (May 29)
Guardians-Orioles Odds for Sunday Night Baseball
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians: +118 | Baltimore Orioles: -140
Over 7.5: -115 | Under 7.5: -105
Logan Allen and Tyler Wells are both coming into their own. The Guardians’ Allen is enjoying a solid start to his career since arriving in the majors. He has posted a 3.31 ERA, averaging a strikeout per inning so far in 2023. At just 24-years-old, he is flashing potential and rare consistency for his age.
Wells has had a much more up-and-down path to success in Major League Baseball. The 28-year old appeared in 44 games in relief in 2021 before becoming a full-time starter last season. Wells was mediocre throughout the 2022 campaign, but did flash potential. He needed to improve upon his strikeout rate after whiffing just 72 batters in 105 innings pitched. Luckily for Wells, he has done just that. His K/9 rate has improved dramatically this year, resulting in better numbers across the board.
Allen and Wells faceoff Monday in what should be a good matchup between solid young starting pitchers. The problem is that the total is currently at 7.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is way too low. OddsShopper’s model projection has this bet pegged for a 55% expected win rate. With a Vig on the Over at -115 as the market currently stands, you’ll be getting a 4% ROI by making the bet long-term. And it has a high enough expectation and win probability to warrant sizing your bet at ~3.5% of your bankroll.
Expect the market to adjust on this number. But if you’re out there and catch this hanging at 7.5 you’ll do well to hit this in the long-run. The Cleveland Guardians organization are expecting big things out of Logan Allen, and Tyler Wells might be coming into his own for the Orioles. But even with their success, this game should be lined at 8.0 runs or more. Sluggers like Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez and the Orioles’ young bats should find success in this spot. OddsShopper’s model will keep up-to-date with any changes as the market moves.
Best Guardians-Orioles MLB Bet: OVER 7.5 Runs (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
