Welcome to longshot day for our best home run bets using FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, where we’ll pick on the long odds for players such as JJ Bleday and Luis Robert.
Truthfully, it’s often longshot day in this space, as we take our chance further down the board while hoping others chip in for free bets.
Haven’t heard of FanDuel Sportsbook’s Dinger Tuesday? Here’s how it works: After opting into the promotion, users who wager at least $25 on a straight bet for a player to hit a home run will earn a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that batter’s game. You can win up to $25 in bonus bets for each entry.
New to FanDuel? Get $150 in bonus bets if you are a first-time depositor and place a $5 wager.
Ideally, one would pick a hitter in each game on the slate to cash in on the promotion. However, if you’re limited by either funds or the sportsbook itself, targeting high totals is the optimal play.
There is a caveat here. Because the promotion is limited to FanDuel, you may have to pass up the best number to take advantage. In general, this should be looked at as a fun wager that also happens to come with some slight positive EV — but this isn’t the same process as the rest of OddsShopper Premium’s other offerings.
How you attack Dinger Tuesday is up to you. My preference, which may differ from others, is to generally take some chances. I’m finding high totals where home runs will be expected in order to cash in on the bonus bets while hoping to connect on a few longer odds. This probably isn’t the space to find many +250 picks.
Best Home Run Picks Today: FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday (May 9)
Kris Bryant +750 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Bryant is starting to look like the player the Rockies signed up for, which mostly means that he’s on the field. When healthy, Bryant is still a solid contributor even if he’s not the MVP of the past. His slugging is up to start the month of May and he’ll have good hitting conditions with the wind blowing out in Pittsburgh. I couldn’t believe he had the same odds as Charlie Blackmon.
JJ Bleday +630 | Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees
My favorite play of the night, as we attack Clarke Schmidt and his inability to get lefties out. Schmidt has allowed five homers against lefties in seven games with most of the damage coming at home with the short porch in right field. Bleday hasn’t been up long but is making Oakland not look ridiculous for shipping off A.J. Puk for the former first-rounder in the offseason. Bleday has two homers on the year in 22 at-bats with most of his damage coming off of fastballs. That does not bode well for Schmidt and his cutter.
Daulton Varsho +470 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Varsho is heating up in May after a slow April. Both Nola and Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah aren’t looking like their previous selves in the early going, and with a total of 9, multiple homers are in play. All of Varsho’s homers are on the road and three of his five have come this month.
Rowdy Tellez +350 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Not sure how much analysis is required here against Noah Syndergaard, but we’ll throw some out anyway. Tellez is probably hitting a home run tonight, and it’ll probably come off a change-up. Syndergaard is giving up more sweet-spot contact than he ever has, not counting his 26-pitch season in 2021. His expected slugging is higher than it’s ever been. He favors his changeup against lefties, which is the pitch Tellez is hitting the best this season. Sounds like math to me.
Luis Robert +560 | Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Noticing the trend where I start each blurb about how May has been better than April for these players? Robert is slugging .909 in May with hits in half his at-bats. Sure, there are only 22 of them, but still. Most of his early power has shown on the road, which is good because he’ll meet Jordan Lyles (a favorite for our Dinger Tuesday picks) in Kansas City tonight.
