It’s a Tuesday, so naturally, you raced on over to FanDuel Sportsbook for the best home run special offer in town, right? We’ve still got you covered for Dinger Tuesday, but a new player has entered the game: Caesars Sportsbook. Their new Tuesday Dingers promotion gives you two 25% profit boosts to use on any home run market. If you haven’t signed up for Caesars yet, you can also get your first bet on the house up to $1,250! Let’s dive into the odds at Caesars using OddsShopper’s model to identify the best home run bets and picks for tonight.
Although Caesars has gassed up the home run odds tonight, we are far from without any options — we can still use OddsShopper’s model to identify value, allowing us to turn some home run picks from -EV plays into +EV smashes.
Best Home Run Picks Today: Caesars’ Tuesday Dingers
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Elehuris Montero at Caesars
Coors Field is no stranger to giving up the long ball, and RHP Connor Seabold (1-3) should be willing and able to entertain the visiting Dodgers. Where it gets tricky for L.A. is dealing with the altitude and Colorado offense that provides a threat at home. LHP Clayton Kershaw (9-4) will face Elehuris Montero, as will anyone who eventually comes in for Kershaw.
Montero is a great play after the 25% profit boost. OddsShopper has the true market value for Montero at +617, worse than his initial odds of +575. However, after adding the profit boost, Montero’s odds land at +719. If Caesars gave that number out initially, it would have beaten any number available — including the one at FanDuel. Congratulations, you just beat the market by using a profit boost!
Tuesday Dingers Home Run Pick: Elehuris Montero +719 at Caesars
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros | 7:45 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Nolan Arenado at Caesars
Applying the same process helps us identify the slate’s second-best option. While the Cardinals may be sputtering and looking to trade everyone, that shouldn’t take away from guys like Nolan Arenado — especially as they will be devalued a bit going against Framber Valdez.
OddsShopper tells us the true market odds for Arenado to go yard sit at +491. Currently, only FanDuel beats that number at +520. Caesars isn’t even close, shamefully sitting at +375. But we have the power to turn yarn into gold by applying a 25% profit boost, changing that number to +568. Not only is this number currently beating the true market odds, but it’s also the best price you’ll find anywhere on the market.
Arenado will have plenty of chances tonight, as the Cards benefit from playing at their home ballpark. Maybe it’s increasing trade value, taking some aggressive swings at a good pitcher or simply home cooking — whatever the reason, Arenado now becomes a must-play +EV smash on Caesars after the boost.
Tuesday Dingers Home Run Pick: Nolan Arenado +568 at Caesars
Eytan’s Bonus Caesars Parlay of the Day
Your first bet at Caesars is on the house up to $1,250, so you may as well take a risk. You can do some serious damage by combining a few +EV legs and putting that first bet down for a larger payout. Looking at the top four +EV bets on Caesars, per OddsShopper, and combining them into a parlay yields a wager with odds of +358! Here’s the ticket:
Bonus Parlay
Matt Vierling Under 0.5 RBIS
JJ Bleday Under 0.5 RBIs
Joey Gallo Under 0.5 RBIs
Matt Manning Under 4.5 Strikeouts
= +358 at Caesars Sportsbook
