Happy Fourth of July! Although it’s a holiday, FanDuel Sportsbook is back with another slate of Dinger Tuesday action — called Let Freedom Ding this week. The promotion is one of the best in the business: if you pick a player and place a $25-plus bet on them to hit a home run, you get $5 in bonus bets for each home run hit by both teams in their game! If you’re yet to sign up for FanDuel, you can get $200 after placing a $20 bet! Remember, FanDuel doesn’t void batters who aren’t in the lineup, so we advise you to wait until lineups are announced to make your Dinger Tuesday picks. If you’re curious about the best Dinger Tuesday strategies, check out our guide to beating the promotion!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best Home Run Picks Today: FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday — Let Freedom Ding!
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics | 7:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Matt Vierling at FanDuel
Someone is going yard against Oakland’s LHP JP Sears today. Sears has allowed 19 home runs and an MLB-high 21.6 expected home runs this season. All but two of those home runs went to RHBs, so let’s target one of Detroit’s: outfielder Matt Vierling.
Vierling has shown plenty of power this year. He ranks a respectable fourth on the roster in home runs (7) but jumps to third in expected home runs (7.1). However, he also leads the active roster in expected weighted on-base average at .344, slightly ahead of the team’s home run leader, Spencer Torkelson (.343).
Torkelson is a chalky Dinger Tuesday option, so I recommend getting exposure to Vierling instead. He comes into this game hot — he has a pair of triples over his last two outings — and slots in at a much longer price. We can buy Vierling at +630 (13.7%) and will still get a $5 bonus bet back if Torkleson goes yard at +390 (20.4%).
Dinger Tuesday Pick: Matt Vierling +630 at FanDuel
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Matt Olson at FanDuel
This may come as a surprise to some, but star RHP Shane Bieber is a sharp target on this Dinger Tuesday. Although he has a solid 3.48 ERA, that masks his unimpressive 4.70 xERA. Bieber has given up 12 home runs and 13.3 expected home runs this year as well. He ranks in the lowly 10th percentile for hard-hit rate and in the sixth percentile for fastball velocity.
Bieber’s struggles have primarily come against LHBs. Lefties have accounted for eight home runs and 19 extra-base hits against Bieber, good for a .797 OPS allowed. The Braves have plenty of left-handed power, but we’re just going to keep this one simple and target Matt Olson at +300 (25%).
Olson’s odds aren’t great, but they aren’t terrible for the MLB’s runner-up in both home runs (28) and expected home runs (26.2). We’ll also get credit if any other members of this high-powered Atlanta lineup go yard as well. The Atlanta Braves pummelled Minnesota for five home runs in the first three innings last Tuesday, so let’s hope for a similar showing tonight.
Dinger Tuesday Pick: Matt Olson +300 at FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Pick: Kevin Kiermaier at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which also comes in the later games: the model wants exposure to Toronto’s Kevin Kiermaier, who will take on the Chicago White Sox and RHP Lucas Giolito. Note that 17 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Like Bieber, Gioltio is a pitcher with plenty of name recognition who has underperformed this year — at least power-wise. He has given up 16 home runs and 15.5 expected home runs on the year. RHBs and LHBs both have eight and a relatively similar OPS, so LHB Kevin Kiermaier, who has four home runs and 3.8 expected home runs, isn’t a bad target. For Dinger Tuesday purposes, it helps that Toronto’s starter, RHP Chris Bassitt, has allowed 13 home runs and 13.5 expected home runs.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +600 (14.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +777 (11.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +900 (10%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dinger Tuesday Pick: Kevin Kiermaier +900 at FanDuel
