The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels start a 4-game series on Thursday night. Both teams are fighting for a Wild Card spot, creating major implications in this series as we head toward the final stretch of the 2023 season. For bettors, there’s some value to be had on MLB prop bets in this one using OddsShopper’s Premium Tool. Let’s dive into the best Mariners-Angels bet for Thursday’s game.
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Best MLB Mariners-Angels Bet & Prediction: J.P. Crawford
Mariners-Angels Odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook
Mariners: +134 | Angels: -158
Mariners +1.5: -154 | Angels -1.5: +128
Over 8.5: -102 | Under 8.5: -120
The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles are neck and neck in the AL West and the AL Wild Card standings. Seattle enters the series at 56-52, while the Angels are a half game behind at 56-53. This 4-game set has major implications for the final push to the playoffs.
The Angels are in luck because they’ll have their best asset on the mound for Thursday’s Game 1. Shohei Ohtani is set to start for them and he could dominate a Seattle offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts in the majors. Bryan Woo will take the hill for the Mariners. The rookie has performed admirably in his first taste of the big leagues. He’s been particularly good at inducing swings and misses, posting 54 strikeouts in 49 IP. On the other hand, most of Woo’s success came earlier in the year as he has struggled more as of late.
Nevertheless, this game has potential to feature two solid pitching performances. That’s also indicated in the 8.5 run total. However, despite Ohtani being on the hill, there is one MLB bet standing out in Mariners-Angels odds for a home run prop on J.P. Crawford. The Mariners’ leadoff man is not known for his power, but he has belted nine home runs this year. That number has already tied Crawford’s career high. It won’t be easy to make it ten off Shohei Ohtani, but the opportunity is present.
The most important feature of this Mariners-Angels bet is it’s odds. Crawford’s home run prop is priced at +1300 at FanDuel,which is simply too low relative to his chances of knocking one out of the park on Thursday. OddsShopper’s market-based model makes the true odds of this bet +1019 with its 9% win rate. That’s a very high positive expected value north of 24%. This bet won’t hit often, so you don’t want to break the bank staking it. Given the 1/10 chance of winning it’s worth laying about .65% of your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best Mariners-Angels MLB Bet: J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 Home Runs (+1300) at FanDuel
