Thairo Estrada may not be a household name, but the San Francisco Giants second baseman has been one of the team’s most consistent performers over the past two seasons. He has performed well since returning from the injury list on June 6th. Despite getting hit by a pitch and leaving once again on Sunday, Estrada is expected to be back in the Giants lineup when they take on the Seattle Mariners in a series finale. One Thairo Estrada prop bet is standing out in OddsShopper model, so let’s dive into Monday’s Mariners-Giants odds as we make our prediction and pick the best MLB bet.
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Best MLB Mariners-Giants Betting Pick & Prediction: Thairo Estrada
Mariners-Giants Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Mariners: +123 | Giants: -143
Over 7: -122 | Under 7: +100
Things are looking up in San Francisco. The Giants are one of Major League Baseball’s biggest surprises, starting the first half of the 2023 season with a 46-38. They are neck-and-neck with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West and in serious contention to make the playoffs. The Giant’s don’t owe their success to big name free agent signings, the organization has one of the lowest budgets in baseball. However, they make up for that with consistency, bringing up organizational talent, coaching them up and returning successful players from a year ago. One of those players is Thairo Estrada.
Last year wasn’t the Giants best, but Estrada stood out as one of their most consistent performers. The 27-year old second baseman hit 14 home runs with a solid .724 OPS. He played in 140 games and was one of the few players to enjoy full playing time rather than a platoon status. Estrada is having another solid season despite injuries taking some of his playing time. Estrada has nine home runs and .761 OPS. Much of his production has come since June 6th when he returned from the injured list with a wrist injury. He is considered day-to-day for Monday’s game after getting hit in the wrist again in Sunday’s game. But he is projected to be in the lineup and batting 2nd again for the Giants.
With Estrada in there, one MLB bet stands out. BetRivers has Estrada Over 0.5 runs at +165 which is too low, leaving about 4% positive expected value on the bet. OddsShopper’s model tracks the betting markets to find the true odds of a bet. The true odds for this MLB prop bet should be +155. It wins 39% of the time, making it worth wagering just under 1% of your bank roll using the Kelly Criterion method of bank roll management.
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Best Mariners-Giants MLB Pick: Thairo Estrada Over 0.5 Runs +165 at BetRivers
