The Twins and Mariners are picking up where they left off last week, only this time the series is in Minnesota. Seattle dropped two of three at home in the last series, but tonight the Mariners will send out their ace in the hope of getting themselves back on track as they vie for a playoff spot. Minnesota will count with Kenta Maeda. Ahead of this matchup, we are going to turn to OddsShopper’s Premium Tool to find the best Mariners-Twins bets for Monday, targeting the aforementioned ace.
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Best MLB Mariners-Twins Bet & Prediction: Luis Castillo
MLB Free Picks: Mariners-Twins Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners: -105 | Minnesota Twins: -115
Over 8.0: -105 | Under 8.0: -115
The Mariners get the benefit of having probably the best pitcher on the slate tonight, but as a result, Caesars has Luis Castillo’s strikeout line at 7.5. Granted, the Twins strike out at the highest rate in MLB, and Castillo’s strikeout numbers are quite strong (10.1 per nine, 27.7% overall), but he has been far more boom/bust than these numbers suggest. After all, he only has one game of eight or more strikeouts in his last seven starts and only two such games since the start of June.
A big part of the higher line for Castillo is likely his 11-strikeout game against these Twins just last week. However, that game took place in Seattle. Castillo’s strikeout rate at home is 31.3%, while his percentage on the road craters to 21.4%. He also has somewhat dramatic lefty/righty splits; the strikeout clips are about the same against either handedness, but Castillo allows an OPS that is 176 points higher to lefties and an ISO 90 points worse. The Twins projected lineup has seven lefties in it, and do not forget: Castillo ended up allowing three runs in six innings in that 11-strikeout game last week. It is not as if he shut Minnesota down.
Castillo only projects for 6.5 strikeouts in today’s matchup. Check out the rest of OddsShopper’s model projections on Castillo below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for Castillo under 7.5 strikeouts at -124, so this under is beating the market at -118. This is also getting a strong 55% expected win rate and 2% EV on OddsShopper, leading to a recommended bet size of $9. As such, Castillo under 7.5 strikeouts lands the top value spot for Monday night’s Mariners-Twins game.
Best Mariners-Twins MLB Bet: Luis Castillo Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-118, Caesars)
