The Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins will continue their cross-state series at Tropicana Field early on Wednesday afternoon. The Rays have sipped behind the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East lead but remain well ahead of their other division rivals. Meanwhile, the Marlins remain far behind the Atlanta Braves but are in the thick of the Wild Card race. Let’s dig into today’s Marlins-Rays odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Marlins-Rays Betting Pick & Prediction: Fade the Fish Today
Marlins-Rays Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Marlins: +115 | Rays: -162
Marlins +1.5: -175 | Rays -1.5: +134
Over 7: +100 | Under 7: -122
Tampa Bay has a big advantage on the mound. The Rays will trot out RHP Zach Eflin at the Trop on Wednesday, and those games tend to go well for both parties. Eflin is 10-1 at home with a 2.10 ERA, which is a fair margin better than his 3.37 ERA. Eflin’s production is sustainable as his 3.13 xERA suggests. The Marlins will start RHP Sandy Alcantara, whose 4.70 ERA, 4.91 road ERA and 4.34 xERA all put him solidly below Eflin.
The Rays also have the better offense. Tampa Bay ranks a solid-but-unspectacular 13th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .322. The Marlins rank 20th at .314. The seemingly unstoppable Luis Arraez has massively outperformed expectations — his team-best .388 wOBA slots in well above his .351 xwOBA. While his hot streak has been impressive, it’s not likely sustainable.
It hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Rays lately, but they’re a better team than they’ve shown. Their 1-3 series loss to the Orioles, which followed an 0-3 sweep against the Rangers, feel more like bumps than genuine causes for concern. The Rays still own the third-best record in baseball (61-42) and the best home record (36-18). The Marlins are a below-average road team (23-27) and are even worse when listed as dogs (17-23).
We can buy Tampa Bay to win Wednesday’s game at odds of -162 (61.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. That slots in below their home winning percentage (66.7%) and their home winning percentage as a favorite (67.3%). It also slots in well below their home winning percentage with Eflin on the mound (90.9%). Let’s lock in the Rays to deliver and win early on Wednesday.
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Best Marlins-Rays MLB Pick: Rays Moneyline -162 at FanDuel
