Betting on no run scoring in the first inning has become one of the most popular MLB game bets. Sharp bettors figured out that books were a little high on team’s chances to score leaving value on those Unders. But since then, the books have caught up, and they may even be leaning in the wrong direction to account for all the public attention on the no run-first inning bets. OddsShopper’s MLB betting model tracks the sharpest oddsmakers to find the best line and then identified books that are off the number. Tonight, that’s the case for this Mets-Giants MLB bet on Over 0.5 runs in the first inning.
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Best Mets-Giants MLB Bet: The Run Scoring Could Start Early
Mets-Giants Bet: O/U 0.5 1st Inning Total Runs
The story of this game might be its shaky starting pitching. Anthony Desclafani takes the hill for the San Francisco Giants and is looking to continue his strong start of the season. Desclafani was once a strong starting pitcher earlier in his career when he played for the Cincinnati Reds. He had a strong 2021 campaign, his first with the Giants but has since been derailed by injuries.
It remains to be seen if Desclafani can return to form. He has been strong in the early going, but has a tough task tonight against a strong New York Mets lineup. When Desclafani starts the top of the first he’ll face the trio of Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor. If any of them reach base he’ll have Pete Alonso waiting in the cleanup spot.
Joey Luchessi will go up against a weaker Giants lineup, but the heavy platoon strategy of Gabe Kapler probably means the lefty will have to get through three right handed batters. Luchessi has the raw talent, but he has never put it together since joining the San Diego Padres rotation as a youngster. He’s also faced his share of injuries and is also looking for newfound success in the majors.
Most importantly is the price of this Mets-Giants MLB bet at BetRivers relative to the rest of the market. OddsShopper’s market based betting model has the sharpest books implying the Over 0.5 1st inning runs hitting at a 52% rate. You can grab this at -105 on BetRivers which gives you a 2% edge. That’s not much, but it would warrant plunking down about 1.5% of your bankroll with a small bet on this one, which over time would net a solid return. Getting volume down on these types of sports over time, and even more in higher expected value spots is a sound, sustainable bank roll strategy.
The OddsShopper tools can help you do just that all season long. And remember to head over to OddsShopper Premium and take advantage of a free seven-day trial!
Best Mets-Giants MLB Bet: Over 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-105 on BetRivers)
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